Daily metals

This Morning Copper is trading at $13,337 as of Wednesday 07:00, essentially flat versus Tuesday's official cash close of $13,334 (+0.0%). Tin is the standout mover, with cash at $51,779 — a 0.8% premium to Tuesday's close of $51,348 — continuing to benefit from tight supply conditions. Lead is also marginally firmer at $1,952 (+0.1%). On the downside, nickel has slipped 0.2% to $18,572, aluminium is off 0.3% at $3,591, and zinc has edged down 0.1% to $3,490. The complex is under pressure from a surging dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields, which are offsetting tentative optimism around U.S.-China trade developments. Macro & Geopolitics The bond market rout deepened on Tuesday, with the U.S. 30-year yield hitting 5.20% — its highest since 2007 — while the 10-year climbed to a 16-month high of 4.687%. War-driven inflation fears are the primary catalyst, with Brent crude holding above $111 despite easing slightly. The dollar index rose 0.34% to 99.33, pressuring greenback-priced commodities. The Fed is now expected to hold rates all year, with futures markets pricing in over 50% probability of a hike. In a significant development for European traders, the EU struck a provisional deal on legislation to implement the Turnberry trade agreement, likely averting Trump's threatened July 4 tariff escalation on EU goods. However, the 50% Section 232 tariff on EU steel and aluminium remains unresolved. Meanwhile, China confirmed it will buy 200 Boeing jets and both sides will seek reciprocal tariff cuts on $30 billion or more of goods, extending the Kuala Lumpur arrangement. Base Metals Copper dipped to a one-week low of $13,350 overnight as the strong dollar and elevated yields weighed on sentiment. Chile's Cochilco raised its 2026 copper price forecast to $5.55/lb, citing firm demand and tight supply, with the refined market expected to remain in near-balance after last year's 124,000-ton deficit. Zinc remains the year's surprise performer — up 13% year-to-date — after smelter accidents at Glencore's Kazzinc in Kazakhstan and Nexa's Cajamarquilla in Peru knocked out capacity at two of the West's largest plants. The ILZSG now forecasts a 19,000-ton global deficit this year, a dramatic reversal from the 271,000-ton surplus predicted last October. Nickel's rally stalled despite Indonesia's President Prabowo announcing plans to centralise commodity exports through a new state agency and to set domestic commodity prices, moves that spooked Jakarta's stock market. Tsingshan's decision to divert power from nickel pig iron to aluminium production at Weda Bay added to supply concerns. Aluminium remains supported by the loss of over 4% of global supply from Middle East disruptions, with Morgan Stanley estimating a 1.85 million-ton deficit for 2026. Precious Metals Gold slid to a 1½-month low around $4,465, pressured by the dollar's six-week high and surging Treasury yields. Spot gold has now fallen roughly $700 from its recent highs as the hawkish rates outlook erodes the appeal of non-yielding bullion. Silver dropped to $73.59, platinum fell to $1,917, while palladium bucked the trend, rising 0.7% to $1,366. J.P. Morgan forecasts platinum at $2,400/oz and palladium at $1,600/oz by Q4 2026. Saxo Bank's Ole Hansen noted that while the structural case for gold remains intact, shorter-term macro headwinds have created a challenging backdrop. Steel The EU's provisional agreement to implement the Turnberry trade deal should bring some calm to transatlantic trade, but the 50% U.S. tariff on EU steel and aluminium remains firmly in place, with further negotiations needed. The European Commission secured a clause allowing it to suspend tariff preferences if the U.S. maintains tariffs above 15% on steel and aluminium "derivative" products like wind turbines and refrigerators. JFE Steel's president signalled the Japanese steelmaker is looking to acquire more stakes in coking coal mines. Brazil's carbon market proposal includes iron and steel in its first phase of emissions reporting from 2027, alongside primary aluminium. Rare Earth Metals China's Commerce Ministry confirmed that both sides will "jointly study and resolve each other's reasonable concerns on rare earths" as part of the extended U.S.-China trade framework, and that Beijing will review rare earth export licence applications for civilian use. Separately, Russia expressed concern over U.S. and EU efforts to secure rare earth access in Central Asia, with Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin calling it "an attempt to push Russia out and create a Western-controlled infrastructure." G7 nations are reportedly working on critical minerals inventory reserves and price floor mechanisms to prevent China from undercutting alternative supply efforts. Forex The euro fell 0.45% to $1.1602 on Tuesday, hovering near one-month lows as the dollar strengthened on rising yields and inflation fears. Markets have priced in three ECB rate hikes by year-end, with a 90% probability of the first move in June, as eurozone inflation hit 3% in April — well above the 2% target. The yen weakened through 159 per dollar for the seventh straight session, unwinding most of the intervention-driven gains from April 30. Sterling traded at $1.3380, near a six-week low ahead of today's UK CPI release. The yuan was steady around 6.81 per dollar. Watch Today UK April CPI is due at 07:00 CET — Deutsche Bank expects a dip to around 3.0% on base effects, though the Bank of England is unlikely to be swayed toward cuts. Germany's April PPI lands at the same time, with March's 2.5% monthly surge setting a high bar. Final eurozone April HICP follows at 11:00 CET. The Fed releases minutes from its April meeting at 20:00 CET, where the biggest split since 1992 saw one dissenter wanting a cut and three pushing to remove dovish language. Nvidia reports Q1 earnings after the U.S. close — options pricing implies a $350 billion swing in either direction.