Daily metals

Copper three-month is indicated at $13,534 this Monday morning, a modest 0.2% premium to Friday's close of $13,520. Aluminium is similarly firmer at $3,602, up 0.3%. Zinc has added 0.2% to $3,533, while nickel and lead are marginally softer at $18,565 (−0.1%) and $2,001 (−0.1%) respectively. The standout mover is tin, which is down 0.2% at $52,745 after Shanghai's most active tin contract plunged 6% in early Asian trade. The complex is broadly flat as Friday's strong U.S. jobs data and renewed Middle East hostilities pull sentiment in opposite directions. Macro & Geopolitics European markets open into a volatile backdrop this Monday. Asian equities tumbled overnight — South Korea's KOSPI fell over 5%, triggering circuit breakers, while Japan's Nikkei shed nearly 4% — as the AI-led rally unravelled following Friday's Nasdaq 4.2% rout. The catalyst was a blowout U.S. jobs report showing 172,000 new positions in May, nearly double expectations, which has pushed the probability of a Fed rate hike by December to around 78%. Brent crude surged above $96 after Israel struck military targets in Iran, even as OPEC+ approved a fourth consecutive monthly output increase. The dollar is firm, holding above 160 yen, with the euro hovering near $1.15. For European metals buyers, the combination of a stronger dollar and rising oil prices compounds input cost pressures heading into a critical week that includes Wednesday's U.S. CPI data and Thursday's ECB rate decision. Base Metals LME copper is trading near one-week lows, weighed by weaker Shanghai prices — SHFE copper fell 1.5% — and a deteriorating demand signal from China, where the Yangshan copper premium dropped to $64/t on Friday, its lowest since late April. Higher interest rate expectations are the dominant headwind across the complex, as rate hikes dampen the growth outlook that underpins industrial metals demand. Indonesia's mining minister signalled the government may relax nickel ore production quotas if global prices are favourable, a potentially bearish development for nickel given the country's tight RKAB allocations this year. Separately, Jakarta published technical regulations formalising the centralisation of ferroalloy exports through a state-owned entity, effective June 1 — a structural shift that European stainless steel and alloy buyers should monitor closely for supply chain disruption risk. Tin's sharp selloff in Shanghai reflects profit-taking after the metal's extended rally, with speculative froth unwinding as risk appetite fades. Precious Metals Gold extended losses on Monday, falling to around $4,319/oz — its lowest since late March — as the hawkish repricing of Fed expectations and rising Treasury yields weigh on the non-yielding metal. Despite renewed Israeli strikes on Iran pushing oil above $96, gold's traditional safe-haven bid is being overwhelmed by rate hike fears. China's central bank continued its gold accumulation for a 19th consecutive month in May, adding 320,000 ounces to reach 74.96 million fine troy ounces, though the dollar value of those holdings fell to $340.75 billion from $344.17 billion in April as spot prices declined. Silver held near $67.86, platinum lost 0.5% to $1,767, and palladium was flat at $1,226. OCBC in Singapore announced it will offer physical gold trading and storage from June 10, citing a 50% year-on-year surge in global demand for gold bars in Q1 2026. Steel Chinese steel rebar futures are hovering near five-week lows around CNY 3,160/t as the market enters its seasonally weak demand period earlier than usual, with persistent rainfall and summer heat curbing construction activity. Chinese crude steel production fell 2.8% year-on-year to 83.6 million tonnes in April, the lowest April output since 2018, reflecting squeezed margins partly driven by rising coal costs. In the U.S., the picture is starkly different: HRC prices have climbed to approximately $1,109/t, supported by 50% Section 232 tariffs, with capacity utilisation at 81.1%. European buyers face a tightening outlook as the EU's revamped steel safeguard takes effect on July 1, roughly halving tariff-free import volumes and doubling out-of-quota duties to 50%. Rare Earth Metals USA Rare Earth secured access to up to $1.6 billion in U.S. Department of Commerce funding to advance its mine-to-magnets strategy spanning Texas, Brazil, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and France. The company plans to invest over €175 million in France over five years, building a rare earth metal and alloy plant in Lacq alongside existing Japanese-French processing infrastructure. Neodymium prices have fallen nearly 10% over the past month but remain almost 70% above year-ago levels. The Pentagon's January 2027 deadline banning Chinese-origin rare earth materials in defence procurement continues to accelerate Western supply chain buildout. Forex The euro slid to around $1.15 on Friday, its weakest since early April, as the dollar surged on the back of the strong U.S. payrolls data. The single currency has lost nearly 2% over the past month. Markets are pricing a near-certain 25bp ECB rate hike at Thursday's meeting, which would lift the deposit facility rate to 2.25%, after eurozone inflation accelerated to 3.2% in May. However, the ECB faces a difficult balancing act: Q1 2026 GDP was revised to show a contraction, the first since late 2022. The yen remains deep in intervention territory above 160 per dollar. China's forex reserves rose more than expected to $3.442 trillion in May, beating the $3.411 trillion consensus and up from $3.411 trillion in April. Watch Today The ECB rate decision on Thursday (June 11) is the week's key event for European markets, with a 25bp hike to 2.25% almost fully priced in — the press conference at 14:45 CET will be closely watched for guidance on further tightening. U.S. CPI data on Wednesday could reshape rate expectations on both sides of the Atlantic. The SpaceX IPO, expected to price Thursday and trade Friday, may draw liquidity from risk assets. Boeing releases May delivery numbers today.