Daily Metals

This Morning Base metals are trading mixed in early Tuesday activity. Copper is at $13,594.5, essentially flat versus Monday's official close of $13,592.08 (+0.0%). Tin is the biggest mover to the downside, trading at $51,060 versus Monday's close of $51,901 (−1.6%). Nickel is also softer at $18,045 versus $18,108.28 (−0.3%), while aluminium dips to $3,588 from $3,604 (−0.4%). Zinc edges up to $3,528.5 from $3,517.94 (+0.3%), and lead is marginally lower at $1,980 versus $1,982.11 (−0.1%). Macro & Geopolitics Iran and Israel agreed to halt attacks on each other following a U.S.-brokered appeal, though Tehran warned it would resume hostilities if Israel continues striking Hezbollah in Lebanon. Oil prices pulled back from Monday's spike above $98/bbl to around $93.50 Brent, but the Strait of Hormuz remains badly restricted, keeping energy costs elevated. Markets are fully pricing a 25bp ECB rate hike to 2.25% at Thursday's meeting, with the key rate seen reaching 2.50–2.75% by year-end. In the U.S., Goldman Sachs now expects no Fed rate cuts until 2027, with over 70% probability of a hike by December. Wednesday's U.S. CPI print will be critical. The CBI cut its UK growth forecast, citing the Iran war's impact on energy prices and living standards. Peru's razor-thin presidential vote count has leftist Sánchez edging ahead of Fujimori — a potential concern for copper and zinc supply given his pledge to overhaul mining concessions in the world's third-largest copper producer. Base Metals Copper is holding steady, supported by declining LME warehouse stocks — down 6% over the past month — as traders continue shifting metal to the U.S. ahead of the June 30 Commerce Department update on refined copper tariffs. Cancelled warrants at 39% signal further drawdowns. However, fresh Chinese customs data capped gains: unwrought copper imports fell 1.3% month-on-month to 446,000 tonnes in May, with the Jan–May total down 7% year-on-year. The Yangshan premium dropped to $64/t, its lowest since late April. Aluminium is expected to find support from restricted Middle Eastern supply — the region houses 9% of global smelting capacity — and elevated energy costs. Trafigura has halted some Cuban zinc concentrate shipments to Chinese smelters due to the U.S. blockade, replacing them with alternative sources. Updated U.S. Section 232 tariff adjustments on steel, aluminium and copper took effect on June 8, with rates of up to 50% on primary metal articles. Precious Metals Gold is trading muted around $4,334/oz after touching a two-month low of $4,268 on Monday. Rising U.S. Treasury yields and a firm dollar are weighing on bullion, while scepticism over the Iran-Israel ceasefire's durability provides a floor. Citi cut its near-term gold target to $4,000 from $4,300 on expectations of higher U.S. rates. Silver slipped 0.5% to $67.85, platinum eased to $1,752, while palladium bucked the trend, rising 1% to $1,216. Steel China's May steel exports jumped 8.8% month-on-month to 10.34 million tonnes, a five-month high, driven by subdued domestic demand and better margins on outbound shipments. However, Jan–May exports are still down 8.1% year-on-year as growing trade protectionism constrains volumes. Analyst Ge Xin at Lange Steel expects total 2026 exports to be reduced by around 20 million tonnes versus last year. Nippon Steel's Mon Valley Works investment may reach up to $2.5 billion, double the original commitment, signalling continued capacity buildout in the U.S. Rare Earth Metals China's May rare earth exports rose 3.4% month-on-month to 5,490 tonnes, a four-month high, as overseas buyers restocked ahead of the summer lull. Jan–May exports are up 2.2% year-on-year. Separately, the Trump administration is urging China to resume rare earth supply to Japan, citing global supply chain disruption concerns. The Pentagon also published an updated list of entities designated as "Chinese military companies," adding Alibaba, Baidu and BYD among others. Forex The euro is stuck near a nine-week low around $1.1538, pressured by the strong dollar and diverging rate expectations. Markets are fully pricing a 25bp ECB hike on Thursday, which should provide some support, but the euro remains vulnerable to further dollar strength if U.S. CPI data surprises to the upside on Wednesday. Sterling edged off a three-week trough to $1.3347. The dollar index is hovering at 100.00, underpinned by the strong May payrolls report and rising rate-hike expectations. Watch Today German April industrial output and trade balance data are due this morning and will set the tone for European sentiment. ECB President Lagarde hosts an informal dinner with the Governing Council and the EU Climate Commissioner — any signals ahead of Thursday's rate decision will be closely watched. In the U.S., April trade balance and May existing home sales data are on the calendar. Metal Radar - 09.06.26