Central bank bonanza

What matters in U.S. and global markets todayU.S. stocks hit record highs on Thursday, buoyed by the Federal Reserve’s first interest rate cut of 2025, a drop in U.S. jobless claims, and Nvidia’s announcement of a $5 billion investment in Intel.In Asia, Friday’s big news came from the Bank of Japan, which held short-term rates steady at 0.5% as expected. More surprising was that two board members voted for a hike, and that the BOJ said it would begin selling its large holdings of ETFs and REITs – a significant policy shift.Central banks in focusMuch of the week’s attention has centered on global central banks:* Federal Reserve – The 25 bps cut and dovish tone sparked debate. Some argue the Fed risks overstimulating the economy by misjudging the “neutral” rate. Others point to its shaky track record on inflation.  * One of the key takeaways from Jerome Powell’s comments was the lack of clarity on both labor and inflation outlooks.  * ROI columnist Jamie McGeever argues the Fed’s statements are inconsistent with its economic forecasts – and warns Fed easing could be a mixed blessing for the rest of the world.* Bank of England – Held rates steady on Thursday but announced it would slow the pace of quantitative tightening. ROI Editor-at-Large Mike Dolan asks why the BoE doesn’t simply scrap direct gilt sales altogether.* Bank of Japan – Decision to hold rates overshadowed by dissenting votes for a hike and the plan to begin unwinding ETF and REIT holdings.Commodities and energy* Oil – China’s crude surplus surged in August as imports and domestic output offset higher refinery runs. But opaque data on stockpiling highlights one of many blind spots in the oil market. ROI Energy columnist Ron Bousso says this uncertainty makes it harder to gauge the real supply-demand balance.* Energy transition – ROI columnist Gavin Maguire highlights how Texas and California are pulling ahead of the rest of the U.S. in clean energy. He also notes that upcoming UK wind conditions could have far-reaching consequences for Europe’s gas and power markets.* Metals – ROI columnist Andy Home explains why aluminium – long defined by oversupply – may soon face an unexpected shortfall.Weekend recommendationsAs we head into the weekend, the ROI team shares what to read, watch, and listen to:* Ron Bousso – A technical but eye-opening free report on oil and gas field decline rates, showing how much investment is required just to maintain output.* Anna Szymanski – On China’s auto sector oversupply crisis, which threatens a painful shakeout with global consequences.* Mike Dolan – An audio summary of the BIS quarterly review, stressing that financial conditions may be loosening excessively despite earlier trade-driven uncertainty.Also: Airlines are racing to cut carbon emissions with biofuels. But between U.S. green jet fuel programs and deforestation in the Amazon, serious questions are emerging over sustainability certification and unintended consequences of climate policy.In the latest ROI podcast, the team returns from the APPEC break with fresh insights on Russian oil production and how ongoing events could reshape global market structure.