Copper edges up on mine supply disruption, tight stocks

Copper prices rose for a third straight session on Tuesday as persistent concerns over a supply shortage kept the metal within striking distance of an all-time peak. Benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was up 0.1% at $14,636.50 a metric ton as of 0915 GMT, close to the record $14,875 seen last month. Supply concerns remained in focus after Chile's Codelco partially suspended operations at its El Teniente mine following a landslide, while Antofagasta's Centinela copper mine and two unions were set to resume talks as a strike continued. "Copper continues to benefit from physical-market tightness and declining exchange inventories, helping it withstand the firm dollar better than the wider complex," Sucden Financial said in a note. A stronger greenback makes dollar-denominated metals more expensive for holders of other currencies. The dollar took a breather on Tuesday but hovered near an 18-month high. All reported copper mine disruptions for 2025-26 — including at Indonesia's Grasberg mine and Kamoa-Kakula in the Democratic Republic of Congo — amount to 350,000-400,000 tons per year of contained copper, which equates to only 30%-50% of published disruption allowances, Panmure Liberum said. "Therefore, the dominant price driver is probably speculative/financial," the bank added in a note. A disruption allowance is a percentage of mine production that analysts assume will be lost due to unplanned events in a given year. LME copper stocks declined by 1,625 tons to 232,275 tons, leaving inventories outside the US tight. The cash LME copper contract was trading at a $181.50 premium to the three-month forward , indicating scarce near-term availability. Aluminium fell 0.6% to $3,035.50 per ton, close to the eight-month low it touched on Monday. Some easing in passage restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz has reconnected Gulf smelters to the world, taking aluminium prices down, Panmure Liberum said. New supply from Indonesia is also ramping up, with exports topping 150,000 tons in August. Zinc lost 0.4% to $3,741.50, lead rose 0.6% to $1,894.50, nickel was flat at $15,620 and tin eased 0.2% to $53,000.