Daily metal

This Morning Base metals are mostly softer in early Wednesday trade at 08:00 compared with Tuesday's official close. Copper is the weakest performer, down 0.7% at $13,791.50/t, while lead has slipped 0.2% to $1,821/t; aluminium and zinc are each 0.1% lower at $3,156/t and $3,547.50/t. Nickel leads the gains, rising 0.5% to $16,965/t, with tin up 0.2% at $53,715/t. Macro & Geopolitics Oil and interest-rate risk are again setting the tone for metals. Brent has advanced above $91/bbl after Saudi crude tankers reversed course in the Red Sea following Houthi threats, raising freight, energy and inflation concerns for European industry. A stronger dollar and US 10-year yields near 4.63% are also limiting commodity upside as markets weigh a high probability of another Federal Reserve rate hike this year. European equity futures are modestly firmer, supported by the rebound in technology shares. Trade uncertainty remains elevated as the US and Mexico renegotiate regional rules covering vehicles, steel and aluminium, while Canada faces new 50% US tariffs on selected products. Base Metals Copper has eased from Tuesday's six-week LME high, despite Shanghai prices reaching a seven-week peak. Chinese physical conditions remain tight: the Yangshan import premium has risen to $109/t, exchange inventories are falling and limited scrap availability is shifting demand towards refined cathode. Smelter maintenance, typhoon-related stockpiling and continued shipments to the US ahead of a possible refined-copper tariff are reinforcing the squeeze. Aluminium is nearly unchanged after Norsk Hydro reported that higher prices and stronger recycling margins outweighed currency and energy headwinds. Nickel is firmer this morning, while tin has extended its advance. Lead and zinc are slightly weaker as the stronger dollar offsets broader supply concerns. Precious Metals Gold has climbed 1.3% to about $4,129/oz, reaching a two-week high as technical buyers returned and investors monitored the widening Middle East conflict. Diplomatic channels remain open, but disrupted Red Sea shipping is preserving demand for defensive assets. Silver is up 1.6% near $59.71/oz, while platinum has gained 1.9% to roughly $1,660/oz and palladium 2.2% to $1,311/oz. Higher oil prices and the prospect of tighter US monetary policy remain the principal restraints on further gains. Steel SSAB's second-quarter operating profit increased to SEK2.70 billion from SEK2.14 billion a year earlier, but missed expectations as higher steel prices and shipments were partly absorbed by rising logistics and energy costs linked to the Middle East crisis. The result highlights the margin pressure facing European mills from Middle East-related transport disruption. Trade policy is another key variable: ongoing US-Mexico negotiations are examining regional-content requirements and barriers affecting steel, aluminium, vehicles and components. For European scrap traders, protected North American supply chains could continue diverting material and investment away from other markets. Rare Earth Metals Lynas Rare Earths has raised the estimated cost of its Malaysian heavy rare earth expansion to A$294 million from A$180 million, underlining the expense of building processing capacity outside China. Quarterly revenue increased almost 70% to A$288.9 million as average selling prices rose sharply, but sales still missed expectations by around 20%. Production also came in below consensus because of ore-quality issues at Mt Weld. Customer demand for non-Chinese supply remains strong, although the cost overrun and delayed initial output from the expansion illustrate how slowly alternative supply chains can scale. Forex The euro remains near $1.14 as the dollar index holds around a one-week high of 101.20. Elevated oil prices and expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy favour the greenback, increasing the euro cost of dollar-denominated metals and energy. Sterling is sensitive to this morning's UK inflation figures, which could alter domestic rate expectations. The yen is near 163 per dollar, around its weakest level in four decades, keeping intervention risk high. South Korea's won has also weakened despite the sharp rally in regional technology shares, reflecting continued demand for dollars across Asia. Watch Today UK June CPI, core CPI and producer-price figures are due at 08:00 CEST and could move sterling, gilt yields and European rate expectations. US-Mexico trade negotiations continue, with steel, aluminium and automotive supply rules on the agenda. After the US close, results from Alphabet, Tesla and Texas Instruments will provide a fresh test of industrial and technology demand sentiment.