Daily metals

LME screens opened Monday with most base metals near Friday's closes. The standout is tin, down 1.7% to $45,880 (3m) as the pullback from January's $56,800 record extends. Copper 3m virtually flat at $12,867, aluminium unchanged at $3,078, nickel steady at $16,965, zinc slightly softer at $3,324. Lead cash firmed modestly to $1,921. China still away for Lunar New Year — liquidity is thin and moves outside tin carry limited conviction. A thin-liquidity handover into China's holiday collided with two macro catalysts: a softer-than-expected U.S. CPI and fresh noise around U.S. steel/aluminium tariffs. The market de-risked first (especially Shanghai ahead of the break), then selectively rebuilt risk as yields dipped and rate-cut pricing firmed. Base metals U.S. CPI cooled — supportive, but not clean "risk-on." January CPI came in below expectations, lifting the odds of a June Fed cut. Lower real yields and improved rate-cut expectations support cyclical commodities and reduce USD funding headwinds for inventory holders — relevant when the market is already sensitive to positioning and liquidity. Tariff rollback story hit aluminium hardest. Reports that Trump planned to scale back some steel/aluminium tariffs sent aluminium to a one-week low before losses were pared, with the U.S. Midwest premium over LME dropping notably. If any change targets downstream goods rather than primary metal, the impact stays concentrated in Midwest premia and arbitrage flows — but even goods-only adjustments ripple into scrap spreads and restocking behaviour. China holiday liquidity vacuum. Onshore participation stepped back, shifting price discovery to LME and offshore venues. In these conditions small headlines produce large moves, and physical indicators can temporarily detach from fundamentals — especially for tight markets like tin and those where China sets the marginal tone (copper, aluminium, zinc). Tin: speculative unwind continues. After surging 40%+ to $56,800 in late January on AI/datacentre soldering narratives, tin has pulled back sharply. SHFE intervened against trend-following, while Indonesia's closure of illegal mines clouds physical supply. This morning's 1.7% drop shows the correction still has momentum. Nickel: Indonesia quotas remain the dominant supply lever. Eramet's Weda Bay JV received a much smaller 2026 permit (12 million wmt), with official comments pointing to a lower national quota range. Policy-driven uncertainty increases the value of optional supply and can shift sentiment before physical tightness is visible. Precious metals The same CPI print supported gold via lower yields. When gold responds positively while equities stay unsettled, the market is leaning toward macro hedging rather than growth optimism — historically a mixed regime for base metals unless post-holiday China demand signals are strong. Rare earths China plans to brief metals firms on new export controls next month, reinforcing tightening oversight of strategic minerals and embedding policy risk premia into NdPr and magnet-material pricing. Any detail on licensing or end-use verification can quickly shift leverage for non-China buyers. FX Yen: BOJ hike speculation re-accelerated around PM Takaichi's first meeting with BOJ chief Ueda. A firmer yen matters through the broad USD conditions channel. Yuan: offshore yuan hit a 34-month high; firmness supports China's commodity import economics post-holiday. EUR: ECB expected to extend its rate pause, limiting major EUR-driven dollar index swings. What matters next - Tariff specificity (aluminium): goods-only or primary flows determines whether action stays in premia or bleeds into global pricing. - Post-holiday China tone: first SHFE sessions set the week's direction for copper/aluminium risk appetite. - Tin stabilisation: does the pullback from $56,800 find a floor, or does SHFE deleveraging push lower? - Indonesia follow-through (nickel): RKAB approval clarity is the next catalyst. - Rates/FX: CPI shift toward earlier cuts is supportive, but metals need confirmation from demand/physical signals once liquidity normalises.