Daily metals

This Morning LME base metals from Friday's official close are meeting a sharply changed geopolitical landscape as trading opens this week. Comparing Monday morning's indicative trade prices to Friday's official close: copper is marginally lower at $13,250 vs $13,294 (−0.3%), while aluminium surges to $3,125.50 from $3,017 (+3.6%), the standout mover. Nickel jumps to $17,680 from $17,066 (+3.6%), zinc is flat at $3,299.50 vs $3,299 (0.0%), lead firms to $1,928 from $1,917 (+0.6%), and tin drops sharply to $56,260 from $57,728 (−2.5%). The aluminium and nickel spikes reflect the weekend's dramatic escalation in the Middle East. Macro & Geopolitics The weekend's US-Israeli military strikes on Iran — including the reported killing of Supreme Leader Khamenei — have upended global risk sentiment as European markets prepare to open. Brent crude surged as high as $82/bbl before settling around $77, with tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz effectively halted. President Trump indicated operations could continue for four weeks. EUROSTOXX 50 futures are down over 1.3%, the euro has weakened to around $1.178, and 10-year US Treasury yields touched an 11-month low near 3.93%. OPEC+ approved a modest 206,000 bpd output increase for April, but the supply impact is dwarfed by Hormuz disruption risks. For European industry, a sustained oil price spike threatens to reignite inflation and squeeze margins. Base Metals Aluminium is the clear beneficiary of Middle East escalation. The region accounts for roughly 9% of global refined aluminium output and 22% of production outside China. Analysts at StoneX warn that a prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure could trap aluminium in the Gulf, eventually forcing smelter curtailments — tightening an already stretched market with Chinese capacity near its ceiling and exchange inventories below seasonal norms. Copper remains rangebound despite the geopolitical shock, weighed down by massive US inventory builds — CME stocks have risen another 93,000 tonnes since January, while LME warehouses in Baltimore and New Orleans have absorbed over 47,000 tonnes. SHFE copper stocks sit at a 10-year high. Tin's 2.5% drop from Friday's close comes after the metal hit a record high above $57,000/mt, with prices remaining elevated despite visible exchange inventories more than doubling in recent months. The EU's own deliberations on restricting copper scrap exports add a longer-term supply consideration for European recyclers. Precious Metals Gold opened the week surging over 2% to above $5,390/oz before settling around $5,350, driven by safe-haven demand following the Iran strikes. JP Morgan and Bank of America reiterated targets toward $6,000, with JP Morgan forecasting $6,300 by year-end on sustained central bank buying. Physical gold flows through Dubai's trading hub are severely disrupted as airlines cancel flights across the Gulf region. Silver gained over 1% to around $95/oz, while platinum spiked over 3% to $2,435 before easing. Palladium edged higher. The disruption to Dubai logistics could tighten physical supply to European refiners in the near term. Steel Steel markets are largely insulated from the immediate Middle East shock but face their own headwinds. Chinese steel benchmarks were flat to marginally changed as Tangshan activated level-two emergency air quality measures ahead of the annual parliamentary session starting March 5, requiring local mills to curb output. Iron ore portside stocks in China hit a record 162.17 million tonnes, while post-holiday steel demand recovery remains sluggish. For European steelmakers, the key risk is indirect — a sustained oil price spike would raise energy costs and potentially dampen downstream demand. Rare Earth Metals Malaysia renewed Lynas Rare Earths' operating licence for 10 years, securing the Australian miner's position as the largest rare earth processor outside China. Lynas has invested approximately A$180 million in a new separation facility in Malaysia amid growing Western demand for non-Chinese heavy rare earth supply. Separately, the Trump administration's recently launched critical minerals stockpile signals intensifying US efforts to secure supply chains. For European manufacturers dependent on rare earth imports, these developments underscore the strategic competition for supply diversification. Forex The US dollar strengthened broadly as a safe-haven beneficiary, with the euro slipping around 0.2–0.4% to the $1.178 area. The dollar's support stems from the US position as a net energy exporter and the traditional haven status of Treasuries. The Swiss franc gained modestly against the dollar, while the yen saw mixed flows — safe-haven demand offset by Japan's total oil import dependency. The Norwegian krone should benefit from elevated oil prices but was thinly traded in early Asian hours. For European metals buyers, the weaker euro raises the effective cost of dollar-denominated LME purchases. Watch Today EU and global manufacturing PMIs are due today alongside the US ISM manufacturing survey and German retail sales — all critical for gauging industrial demand. ECB board member Frank Elderson and Bank of England MPC member Alan Taylor are scheduled to speak, with markets listening for any reaction to the oil price shock and its inflationary implications.