Daily metals

This Morning Early Thursday trading shows copper at $12,991.5, slipping 0.4% from Wednesday's official close of $13,038.47, as the Middle East conflict continues to weigh on growth-sensitive metals. Aluminium bucks the trend at $3,378, up 1.1% from its $3,342.50 close, extending its war-driven rally. Tin is the notable laggard, trading at $50,060 — down 1.8% from Wednesday's $50,957 close — giving back some of this week's sharp gains. Zinc eased 0.8% to $3,281.50, while nickel firmed 0.6% to $17,390. Lead dipped 0.6% to $1,902. Macro & Geopolitics The U.S.–Iran war entered its sixth day with Iran launching a fresh wave of missiles at Israel overnight, while a U.S. submarine sank an Iranian warship off Sri Lanka — killing at least 80 people — in the first such action since World War Two. The Republican-led Senate voted to block a resolution to halt the air campaign, leaving Trump's war powers largely unbound. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains paralysed, with at least 200 vessels anchored off the coast. IMF chief Georgieva warned the conflict could affect "global economic resilience" and if prolonged has "obvious potential to affect global energy prices, market sentiments, growth and inflation." China's National People's Congress opened with a 4.5–5% growth target for 2026, pledging investments in innovation and increased household consumption. The EU expects to be exempt from the new U.S. global import tariffs of 15% and has received assurances that the U.S. would maintain a 10% tariff rate on the bloc. ECB President Lagarde speaks today. Base Metals Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) — which operates one of the world's biggest smelters — declared force majeure on Wednesday and informed affected customers of delays because it could not ship through the Strait of Hormuz. This follows Norsk Hydro's shutdown of the 648,000 metric-ton-per-year Qatalum smelter, expected to be completed by the end of March, with a full restart potentially taking six-to-12 months. More than 5 million metric tons of metal are shipped through the Hormuz Strait each year by smelters in Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Analysts at Citi have raised their three-month LME aluminium price target to $3,600 a ton from $3,400 and said prices could climb to $4,000 in a bull-case scenario. European aluminium premiums have risen to $436 a ton for April, the highest levels in 3-1/2 years, while U.S. premiums have jumped to a record high of $1.075 per lb. China's NDRC said it would reduce capacity in steelmaking, oil refining and other unspecified industries in an orderly manner, and that capacity would be managed in copper smelting and the alumina and coal chemical industries. Precious Metals Spot gold was up 0.8% at $5,177.33 per ounce as of 0435 GMT, with U.S. gold futures for April delivery up 1% at $5,185.50. Bullion has risen about 20% so far this year, notching successive record highs amid heightened global political and economic uncertainty. Spot platinum climbed 1.4% to $2,179.48. Impala Platinum posted a five-fold increase in half-year profit on Thursday, with headline earnings at 9.3 billion rand ($567.36 million) in the six months to December 31, up from 1.9 billion rand previously, and declared an interim dividend of 4.10 rand per share. Spot platinum more than doubled in 2025 and hit a record of more than $2,700 an ounce in late January. Silver rose 1.7% to $84.86 per ounce. Perth Mint's gold product sales more than doubled in February from the previous month to 67,249 ounces, while silver sales rose 11.7% to 1.92 million ounces. Steel China said it would reduce capacity in steelmaking and oil refining in an orderly manner, though no numerical targets or specific plans were given. China said it would enhance the restructuring of various industries including steel, petrochemical and shipbuilding over the next five years, and would increase energy-saving and carbon-reducing transformation efforts in such key industries as thermal power, steel, nonferrous metals, petrochemicals, chemicals, and building materials. Iron ore futures advanced on Thursday as China announced economic measures including promises to boost domestic consumption, curb overproduction and spur the housing market, with the most-traded May iron ore contract on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange trading 1.93% higher at 764 yuan a metric ton. Steel benchmarks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange gained modestly. Rare Earth Metals China said it would strengthen the competitiveness of its dominant rare earths industry in the next five years and would enhance and improve its export control systems. Australia and Canada signed new agreements on critical minerals, with Australia joining Canada's G7 critical minerals production alliance, a Canada-led initiative to diversify and secure global critical minerals production and supply. Canada and Australia together produce about a third of global lithium and uranium, as well as more than 40% of global iron ore. Venezuela's interim President Rodriguez said a reform of the country's main mining law will be submitted in coming days to the legislature, expected to include provisions that would allow foreign companies to exploit gold, diamonds and rare earths, though exploration has not yet taken place in Venezuela to confirm reserves of rare earths. Forex The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, was flat at 98.81. The euro rose 0.22% to $1.1638. Sterling was up 0.16% at $1.3375. The Japanese yen advanced 0.2% to 156.75 per dollar. The U.S. dollar is on one side of 89% of all FX transactions according to the Bank for International Settlements — the highest in 25 years — while the euro is on one side of 29% of all FX transactions. Watch Today Euro zone retail sales for January, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speaks, and U.S. data on weekly jobless claims, productivity (Q4, prelim), and import prices (January) are due. Speeches by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee and Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman are scheduled. Any headline shifts on Hormuz shipping or Iran diplomacy will dominate intraday price action