Daily metals

The complex is under pressure this Thursday morning, with all six LME base metals trading below Wednesday's official closes. Tin is the sharpest faller, down $571 or 1.1% to $49,850, while nickel has shed $225 or 1.2% to $18,235. Copper is off 1.3% at $13,259, giving back Wednesday's gains that had taken it to a seven-week high of $13,448. Aluminium is down 0.7% at $3,587, zinc has eased 0.8% to $3,442, and lead is the most resilient, slipping just 0.7% to $1,948. The overnight reversal follows Asia-Pacific equities pulling back sharply from record highs as oil's relentless climb above $103/bbl stoked inflation fears and undermined risk appetite.

Iran's seizure of two ships in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday immediately tested Trump's unilateral ceasefire extension, with Brent crude surging 3.5% to settle at $101.91 and climbing further to $103 in Asian trade this morning. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs on Wednesday, but Wall Street futures have turned negative overnight as the reality of a prolonged energy shock sinks in. UK inflation rose to 3.3% in March from 3.0%, underscoring the war's impact on price levels. Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh told senators he made no rate-cut promises to Trump, while a Reuters poll showed the Fed is unlikely to cut rates for at least six months. Germany halved its 2026 growth forecast and raised inflation projections. Flash PMIs for the eurozone, UK, France and Germany are due today and will be closely watched for signs of war-related damage to manufacturing activity.

Wednesday's copper rally to a seven-week high of $13,448 has unwound overnight as the dollar firmed and oil's surge above $100 reignited stagflation fears. Comex copper stocks hit a fresh record of 547,708 metric tons as the Comex-LME arbitrage continues to pull metal stateside ahead of a July tariff decision. A critical supply-side story is developing: China's sulphuric acid exports to Chile fell to zero in March, threatening up to 1.1 million tons of Chilean leached copper output, with a formal Chinese export ban expected from May. Aluminium is being described as facing a "black swan" supply shock from war-related disruptions, according to Mercuria's top metals analyst at the FT Commodities Summit. The INSG forecast the global nickel market will swing to a 32,000-ton deficit this year — the first since 2021 — driven by tighter Indonesian mining quotas and a sulphur shortage forcing processors to trim output by at least 10%.

Gold is down 0.7% to around $4,705 this morning after a brief reprieve on Wednesday, as Brent crude's return above $100 keeps inflation fears front and centre. UBS retains a constructive year-end target of $5,900/oz, driven by expectations of eventual rate cuts and a weaker dollar. Silver fell 2% to $76.17, platinum lost 1.8% to $2,037, and palladium dropped 1.2% to $1,527. A Reuters poll of economists suggests the Fed will wait at least six months before cutting, with traders now pricing only a 26% chance of a December move — a sharp repricing from pre-war expectations of two cuts this year.

Mexico's Economy Minister Ebrard acknowledged that U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminium are likely permanent regardless of the USMCA review outcome, telling reporters the country is focused on reducing rather than eliminating duties. Mexico's steel industry currently faces a 50% U.S. duty on commodity steel products. Separately, Shanghai steel benchmarks gained ground overnight, with rebar up 0.35% and hot-rolled coil advancing 0.68%, supported by elevated input costs from the energy shock.

Europe's EIT RawMaterials and German platform Metalshub are developing a European critical minerals trading platform to establish regional benchmark prices independent of China, which controls roughly 90% of processed rare earth output. The initiative targets a pilot launch within 12 months and aims to address what EIT's CEO called the "absolute deal breaker" of opaque pricing that is blocking investment in new Western mines and processing facilities. Separately, Energy Transition Minerals terminated its MOU with China's Shenghe Rare Earth, while Dalaroo Metals announced expansion of its Blue Lagoon rare earth project in Greenland.

The euro slipped 0.3% on Wednesday to $1.1704, hovering near a 10-day low of $1.1691, as the dollar firmed on safe-haven demand amid the Hormuz standoff. The dollar index rose 0.26% to 98.63, recovering further from its April lows but still down 1.5% for the month. Dollar-yen pushed toward 160.00, while bitcoin surged 4% to near $79,000 — a three-month high. Sterling faces pressure after UK CPI came in hot at 3.3%, narrowing the Bank of England's room for easing. Today's flash PMI readings across Europe could drive the next leg in EUR/USD.

Flash PMIs dominate the European calendar: France (07:15 GMT), Germany (07:30), eurozone composite (08:00) and UK (08:30) will all provide the first hard read on April manufacturing activity amid the energy shock. The ECB publishes the account of its March policy meeting. In the US, weekly jobless claims (12:30 GMT) and flash S&P Global PMIs (13:45) are due. Intel and American Express report earnings. Any developments on the Strait of Hormuz or US-Iran talks will override scheduled data.