Daily metals

Copper 3-month is trading at $13,366, down 0.2% from Thursday's official close of $13,393, as overnight U.S.-Iran hostilities injected fresh caution. Nickel is the sharpest decliner, off 1.4% at $18,875, while tin has shed 1.0% to $54,170. Lead slipped 0.8% to $1,967 and zinc is essentially flat at $3,448. Aluminium bucks the trend marginally, ticking up $2 to $3,495. The complex is digesting Thursday's exchange of fire between U.S. and Iranian forces, which tested the month-old ceasefire and reversed much of the week's peace-deal optimism.

The U.S. and Iran exchanged fire on Thursday in the most serious breach of their ceasefire yet, though both sides signalled they did not want to escalate. Iran said the situation had returned to normal while President Trump stated the ceasefire was still in effect. Brent crude whipsawed, settling at $100.06 before jumping above $101 overnight. A U.S. trade court ruled Trump's 10% Section 122 global tariffs illegal, though the block applies narrowly to just three plaintiffs; an appeal is expected. The STOXX 600 fell 1.1% on Thursday after Wednesday's 2.2% surge. Norway's Norges Bank surprised with a rate hike, the second G10 tightening this year after the RBA, underscoring central banks' sensitivity to war-driven inflation. All eyes turn to U.S. non-farm payrolls this afternoon, with consensus at 62,000 jobs added in April.

Copper held broadly steady on Thursday at $13,372.50 on the LME, supported by a weaker dollar and plummeting Shanghai exchange stocks — down more than half since mid-March — alongside a 60%-plus jump in the Yangshan import premium. However, Freeport-McMoRan has delayed the full restart of its Grasberg mine to early 2028, tightening the medium-term supply outlook. COMEX copper continues to trade at roughly $120/ton above LME, pulling metal stateside, though analysts at LME Asia Week cautioned that swelling U.S. stockpiles and surging war-related shipping costs make a repeat of 2025's record import volumes unlikely. Aluminium slipped as potential Middle East peace threatened to unwind the war premium. Lead touched $1,990 — its highest since late February — on concentrated warrant holdings ahead of the May expiry. Sherritt's suspension of its Cuban nickel-cobalt joint venture following expanded U.S. sanctions is expected to widen the cobalt deficit and may further tighten nickel supply. The nickel associations of Indonesia and the Philippines signed a memorandum of understanding on nickel cooperation, including information exchange, joint technology development, and human resource development to support a sustainable nickel industry ecosystem.

Gold rose 0.3% on Thursday to $4,701 and is up over 2% for the week, buoyed by falling oil prices easing inflation fears. TD Securities sees a path above $5,200/oz once conflict-driven pressures fade. China's central bank added gold for an 18th consecutive month in April. Silver surged 2.6% to $79.32, its highest since mid-April. Poland's central bank disclosed reserves of 595 tonnes and is targeting 700 tonnes, adding to the picture of sustained official-sector demand. Markets await today's payrolls data for signals on Fed rate policy.

Shanghai steel benchmarks rallied on China's return from the Labour Day break, with rebar up and hot-rolled coil firming. Toyota forecast a 20% drop in annual operating profit, citing cost and supply uncertainties from the Middle East conflict. Italian brake maker Brembo raised its full-year revenue outlook after quickly sourcing alternative aluminium suppliers to replace war-disrupted Gulf flows. The Baltic dry freight index hit a two-year high, with coal tonne-mile demand to the EU, Japan and South Korea up 8% year-on-year in April, supporting panamax rates.

MP Materials beat Q1 expectations, posting adjusted earnings of 3 cents per share on a 49% revenue jump to $90.6 million, boosted by $42.3 million in U.S. government price support and a $32 million Apple prepayment for magnets. The company expects to commission its heavy rare earths separation circuit this quarter and expects Q2 NDPR rare earths prices to be in the low to mid $90 per kilogram range. Phoenix Tailings acquired AI developer Machinery Partner to automate its rare earths processing operations, with the technology expected to boost processing by 30% annually. Brazil's President Lula told Trump that Brazil is open to critical minerals investment, while South Korea and Canada agreed to deepen cooperation on the same front.

The euro was little changed at $1.1731, holding near recent highs as the dollar index steadied around 97.9. The Norwegian krone firmed to three-year highs after the surprise Norges Bank rate hike. Sterling traded at $1.36 ahead of UK local election results, with analysts warning that a poor Labour showing could pressure gilts. The yen hovered at 156.9 per dollar, struggling to sustain gains past 155 despite suspected Japanese intervention totalling nearly $70 billion over the past two weeks. China's yuan sits near its strongest since 2023, approaching the 6.80 level ahead of Trump's planned visit to Beijing next week.

U.S. non-farm payrolls for April are due at 14:30 CET, with consensus at 62,000 jobs — a significant deceleration from March's 178,000. German industrial production data for March land at 08:00 CET. ECB President Lagarde and board members de Guindos and Schnabel are all scheduled to speak, as is Bank of England Governor Bailey on global imbalances. Any further developments in U.S.-Iran hostilities could dominate price action across the complex.