Daily metals

This Morning Copper is trading at $13,969 as of Wednesday morning, down 0.5% from Tuesday's official close of $14,041, giving back some of yesterday's gains that took the metal above $14,000 for the first time in over two weeks. Tin is the standout performer, up 0.4% at $58,150 versus Tuesday's $57,960 close, keeping it within range of its all-time high. Aluminium is marginally firmer at $3,760, up 0.2%, while nickel has slipped 0.3% to $18,980 and lead is off 0.3% at $2,039. Zinc is essentially flat at $3,622, down just 0.1%. The overnight tone is cautious as fresh Middle East hostilities offset the AI-driven equity rally. Macro & Geopolitics Gulf hostilities flared overnight, with the U.S. military reporting that Iranian missile attacks on Bahrain, Kuwait and other regional targets were thwarted or failed, prompting U.S. strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude rose above $94, extending a three-day rally. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack warned the central bank may need to raise rates soon if inflation pressures mount further. Euro zone core inflation printed at 2.5% year-on-year in May, above expectations, all but sealing a quarter-point ECB rate hike this month with at least one more priced in by year-end. U.S. job openings surged by the most in five years in April, reinforcing the case for tighter policy. Canada formally triggered the USMCA review process, flagging sectoral tariffs as a key discussion point with Washington. Base Metals Tuesday's session saw copper touch $14,056 before profit-taking set in overnight. The market remains fixated on the U.S. Commerce Department's end-of-June deadline for a recommendation on refined copper tariffs, with the COMEX premium over LME widening and encouraging shipments stateside. Aluminium hit its highest since March 2022 at $3,787.50 on Tuesday as LME inventories fell to 335,450 tons — a near four-year low — and the cash-to-three-month premium surged to $116.50 per ton, the highest level in at least 17 years. Panmure Liberum analyst Tom Price described aluminium as "genuinely a tight market," citing slowing Chinese exports and war-related Middle Eastern supply losses. In Zambia, Vedanta's Konkola Copper Mines began a 60-day shutdown of its Nchanga smelter, joining two other major Zambian processing plants undergoing extended maintenance through mid-September, tightening copper and sulphuric acid availability. Alba's $2.2 billion acquisition of Aluminium Dunkerque — the EU's largest smelter at 300,000 tons per year — adds a significant European dimension to the Bahraini producer's portfolio. Precious Metals Gold is hovering around $4,471, slipping 0.3% in early Asian trade as rising oil prices stoked inflation fears and dampened rate-cut expectations. Saxo Bank's Ole Hansen noted gold "remains in a short-term downtrend, with a break above $4,630 needed to signal a more constructive outlook." Commerzbank cut its year-end gold forecast to $4,800 from $5,000, though it maintained its $5,200 target for end-2027. Swiss gold exports fell 20% in April as UK-bound shipments dropped sharply. India tightened silver import restrictions further, mandating prior authorisation for grain and powder forms after record $12 billion in silver imports last fiscal year. Silver, platinum and palladium all eased modestly overnight. Steel China's state-backed steel association warned that the traditional slack demand season arrived earlier than usual this year, with rains and high temperatures constraining outdoor construction. Steel margins are being squeezed by rising coking coal prices — up 16% since a fatal mine accident in Shanxi province triggered safety inspections. Separately, state iron ore buyer CMRG told domestic steelmakers not to engage with Fortescue on its new Fortune Fines product, stoking speculation of a purchasing ban amid difficult contract negotiations. Stellantis committed €1 billion in French investment including a new EV platform its CEO said would bring "cost parity with the Chinese that build in Europe." Rare Earth Metals USA Rare Earth announced a $1.2 billion investment in a new magnet and metals facility in South Carolina, targeting 6,400 tonnes per year of NdFeB magnets and 5,000 tonnes of rare earth metals, with commissioning from 2028. The U.S. Department of Energy separately selected projects in Louisiana and Oklahoma for $134 million in funding to extract rare earths from waste streams, including bauxite tailings. The EU launched its first investment roadshow in South Africa targeting critical minerals, with €12 billion in pledged investments under the 2025 Clean Trade and Investment Partnership. Forex The dollar edged toward 160 yen overnight, touching the level widely viewed as Japan's intervention red line, before pausing. The euro held steady around $1.1627, still roughly 1.5% below its pre-war level, with the hotter-than-expected May inflation print reinforcing expectations of ECB tightening. Sterling was little changed at $1.3462. The Indonesian rupiah recovered from a record low of 17,892 per dollar but remains under pressure from fiscal concerns and planned commodity export centralisation rules that took effect June 1. Markets have now priced in approximately 18 basis points of U.S. rate increases this year, a stark reversal from pre-war cut expectations. Watch Today U.S. ADP private payrolls and ISM services PMI for May are due this afternoon, along with the Fed's Beige Book — all key inputs ahead of Friday's nonfarm payrolls. ECB board members Elderson and Cipollone are scheduled to speak. Middle East developments remain the dominant wildcard after overnight missile exchanges in the Gulf.