Daily metals

Base metals are opening the week firmly in the green as markets digest Sunday's US-Iran peace framework. Compared with Friday's official LME close, early Monday trading prices show copper at $13,603 (–0.3%), aluminium at $3,535 (+0.1%), nickel at $17,625 (+0.1%), lead at $1,956 (–0.5%), zinc at $3,556.50 (–0.6%), and tin at $53,500 (+0.2%). The modest dips in copper, lead and zinc against Friday's settlement belie the broader bullish tone; LME three-month copper touched $13,893.50 earlier in the Asian session — its highest since 5 June — before paring gains. Tin remains the standout performer, having surged as much as 3.3% in early LME trade on the back of the peace deal euphoria and persistent structural supply tightness. Macro & Geopolitics The US-Iran framework peace deal announced Sunday is the dominant market driver this morning. The agreement promises to end hostilities, lift the US blockade and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with a formal signing set for Friday in Switzerland. Brent crude tumbled over 4% to around $83, well off its May peak of $126. However, uncertainty lingers — Tehran insists it and Oman will regulate strait traffic, raising questions about potential tolls and shipping insurance costs. The G7 summit opens today in Évian-les-Bains, where Trump is expected to meet Middle Eastern leaders and Ukraine's Zelenskiy. Central banks dominate the week: the Fed decides Wednesday (rates expected unchanged at 3.50–3.75%), the BoJ is likely to hike to 1% on Tuesday, and the BoE holds Thursday. Last week the ECB delivered its first rate hike since 2023, lifting the deposit rate to 2.25%, with Bundesbank President Nagel signalling readiness for another move in July if needed. Base Metals Copper led the early rally, hitting a one-week high of $13,893.50 before easing, supported by the weaker dollar and improved risk appetite. Shanghai copper climbed 1.5% to 105,780 yuan. The aluminium market faces a fresh supply headache: Qamco confirmed the termination of Norsk Hydro's marketing agreement for the 648,000 tpy Qatalum smelter in Qatar, which has been running at only 60% capacity since March due to war-related gas disruptions. Hydro issued a second force majeure to customers, warning it may be unable to fulfil deliveries even if conditions improve. This removes a significant source of primary metal from European supply chains. Tin surged over 3% in early trade, continuing its 2026 outperformance driven by semiconductor demand and supply constraints from Indonesia, Myanmar and the DRC. China's non-ferrous metals index was set to open up nearly 3%. Precious Metals Gold jumped 2.5% to $4,323 — its highest since 9 June — as the peace deal hammered the dollar and oil, easing inflation expectations and trimming December rate-hike bets to 48% from 69% last week. The metal has recovered sharply from Thursday's six-month low near $4,022 but remains roughly 20% below its January record of $5,595. Silver surged 3.6% to $70.39, platinum gained 3.3% to $1,774 and palladium rose 3.3% to $1,325. Singapore announced plans to establish an OTC gold clearing system and central bank vaulting services, positioning itself as an Asian gold hub. Steel The EU's new steel safeguard regulation takes effect on 1 July, replacing the expiring WTO-era measures. Tariff-free import quotas will be slashed significantly, with out-of-quota duties doubling to 50%. Combined with CBAM enforcement, this is expected to structurally support European domestic steel prices in H2 2026. Industry margins could improve substantially by 2027, though demand destruction and high energy costs remain headwinds. Scrap traders should watch for tighter import availability and potential upward pressure on domestic scrap pricing as EAF capacity competes for feedstock. Forex The euro rose 0.4% to $1.1608 this morning as the dollar weakened broadly on the peace deal. The move partially reverses the euro's slide to two-month lows around $1.15 following last week's ECB rate hike, which was accompanied by a downgraded growth outlook (0.8% GDP for 2026) and sharply higher inflation forecasts (3.0% headline for 2026). Sterling gained 0.3% to $1.3446 ahead of a data-heavy UK week including CPI, employment and retail sales. The dollar-yen pair held above 160, with the yen failing to rally despite an expected BoJ hike, reflecting the pair's entrenched bear trend. For European scrap traders, the softer dollar improves competitiveness of dollar-denominated metal purchases but the ECB's hawkish tilt limits euro upside. Watch Today The G7 summit opens in Évian with geopolitics front and centre — any further detail on the Iran deal or Strait of Hormuz shipping terms could move energy and metals markets. ECB President Lagarde delivers a pre-recorded keynote, while board member Cipollone also appears. EU April trade and industrial output data are due. In the US, May industrial production and the Empire Manufacturing survey for June are released this afternoon.