Daily metals

LME base metals are trading softer this Friday morning as the strong dollar and hawkish Fed signals continue to weigh on the complex. Copper is trading at $13,526, down 0.7% from Thursday's official close of $13,624.19, making it the session's weakest performer. Aluminium is broadly flat at $3,389 versus its $3,386.50 close. Zinc is off 1.1% at $3,595 against its $3,633.52 close, while nickel trades at $17,700, up marginally from $17,652.75. Tin is the notable laggard on a closing basis, trading at $52,575 versus Thursday's $53,343 close (−1.4%). Lead is essentially unchanged at $1,949. Macro & Geopolitics The U.S.-Iran interim peace deal dominates the macro landscape. Oil tankers have begun transiting the Strait of Hormuz, sending Brent crude down 9% this week to around $79 — back to early March levels. However, the cancellation of Friday's planned U.S.-Iran talks in Switzerland has injected fresh uncertainty. The Fed's hawkish stance under new Chair Kevin Warsh is the other major force: nine of 19 policymakers now see a rate hike this year, and markets price an 87% chance of a December move. The dollar index hit a one-year high at 100.78. The BoE held rates at 3.75% on Thursday. EU leaders in Brussels debated tougher measures to address the bloc's €1 billion-per-day trade deficit with China, including on critical minerals. Thin liquidity today with U.S. markets closed for Juneteenth and China on Dragon Boat Festival holiday. Base Metals Copper edged lower as the stronger dollar and higher-for-longer U.S. rate expectations outweighed relief from the Middle East peace progress. ANZ noted that higher U.S. rates raise costs for commodity importers globally. Aluminium was a relative outperformer, climbing 0.5% in early Asian trade to $3,402 before easing. Goldman Sachs raised its average aluminium price forecast on Thursday, citing an assumption that Gulf smelter production — roughly 9% of global capacity — will face a slower recovery despite the ceasefire. Zinc outperformed on Thursday, hitting a two-week high on falling treatment charges amid tight concentrate supply. ElvalHalcor, Greece's leading aluminium and copper processor, announced a €250 million share capital increase to fund strategic capacity expansion through 2030. Precious Metals Gold is heading for a third consecutive weekly loss, falling nearly 2% to around $4,126 in early Friday trade as the resurgent dollar crushes non-yielding assets. Goldman Sachs cut its December gold target to $4,900/oz from $5,400, no longer expecting a Fed rate cut this year. Silver dropped nearly 3% to $63.82. Platinum and palladium are also tracking lower. Dubai's DGCX will launch a same-day settlement gold futures contract on Monday, targeting bullion dealers and refineries. Steel The EU's current steel safeguard measures expire on 30 June — just 11 days away — with a new, significantly tighter regime set to take effect on 1 July. The replacement framework slashes tariff-free import quotas by 47% and doubles the out-of-quota duty to 50%. EU leaders at the Brussels summit also pressed the Commission to bolster trade defences against China, whose goods surplus with the bloc hit €360.6 billion in 2025. Meanwhile, the iron ore industry conference in Singapore this week heard forecasts of strong demand growth from South and Southeast Asia, but green steel investment remains negligible at just $20 billion globally. Rare Earth Metals The U.S. government signed a $725 million conditional loan commitment with Energy Fuels to boost domestic rare earth processing, part of Washington's push to reduce dependence on China. Beijing's export restrictions on rare earths, imposed in April 2025, continue to squeeze EU companies. Separately, China's Guangzhou Futures Exchange will open lithium carbonate futures to overseas traders from 3 July, strengthening its grip on global battery metal pricing. Forex The euro slid below $1.15 to its lowest since late March, pressured by broad dollar strength following the Fed's hawkish pivot. The EUR/USD pair hit around $1.1464 on Thursday — a weekly decline of over 1%. The ECB raised rates last week, but money markets have since scaled back expectations for further tightening to less than 30 basis points this year, as the U.S.-Iran deal eases energy-driven inflation fears. Sterling fell to $1.3195 after the BoE hold. The yen weakened past 161 per dollar, well beyond Tokyo's perceived intervention threshold. For European scrap traders, the weaker euro against the dollar raises the cost of dollar-denominated metal imports. Watch Today German PPI data for May is due at 06:00 GMT — a key gauge of producer-level inflation pressures in Europe's largest economy. UK retail sales for May follow at the same time. ECB board members Philip Lane, Piero Cipollone, and Frank Elderson are all speaking in Paris today, and any commentary on the rate outlook could move the euro and European metals sentiment.