Daily metals

LME base metals are opening the week firmer after a volatile weekend of U.S.-Iran peace negotiations. Compared to Friday's official close, copper is trading at $13,533, up 0.05% from $13,526.62. Nickel is the standout mover, up 1.1% to $17,590 from $17,395.03, while tin has also jumped 0.9% to $53,450 from $52,974. Zinc is up 0.3% at $3,564, lead has gained 0.5% to $1,930, and aluminium is essentially flat at $3,398 (+0.04%). The complex is being supported by easing geopolitical risk after Iran cited progress in Swiss peace talks, pulling oil prices lower and lifting risk appetite across Asian markets. Macro & Geopolitics The first round of high-level U.S.-Iran talks in Switzerland concluded with mediators Qatar and Pakistan announcing a roadmap toward a final deal within 60 days. The status of the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain — shipping data showed vessel transits falling sharply over the weekend — but the diplomatic progress pulled Brent crude down over 2% to under $79. The Fed's hawkish pivot last week continues to reverberate: markets now price a 75% chance of a rate hike by September and 89% by December, with 2-year Treasury yields hitting their highest since early 2025. The ECB hiked rates by 25bp on June 11, citing broadening inflation pressures from the Middle East war, and President Lagarde speaks before the European Parliament today at 15:00 CET. In the UK, political uncertainty is mounting as PM Starmer faces pressure to resign following Andy Burnham's decisive parliamentary election win. Base Metals Copper ticked higher in early Asian trade, supported by easing geopolitical tensions and ongoing supply tightness. LME copper stocks fell 3,575 tons on Friday to 352,150 tons, with cancelled warrants at 37% — a sign of continued physical demand. The market is watching the end-of-June deadline for Commerce Secretary Lutnick's review of U.S. refined copper tariffs, which could pave the way for phased duties of 15% from January 2027. SHFE copper inventories dropped 23.6% last week. Separately, Guinea's push to move from bauxite mining to alumina refining is reshaping the aluminium supply chain — Chalco has committed to a $1 billion refinery, and Conakry is targeting 7 million tons of alumina capacity by 2030, a development that could tighten the seaborne bauxite market and challenge Chinese domestic refiners. Indonesia's refined tin exports fell 40.5% year-on-year in May to 3,246 tons, adding to supply concerns in that market. Precious Metals Gold rebounded from a one-week low, rising around 0.4–1% to the $4,176–$4,200 range as falling oil prices eased inflation fears. However, gains were capped by the hawkish Fed outlook, with nine of 19 policymakers now expecting rate hikes this year. Spot silver surged over 1% to $65.53, while platinum dipped 0.3% and palladium gained 0.6%. Marex analyst Edward Meir noted the situation remains fluid, advising traders to watch geopolitical developments from the sidelines. Steel The World Steel Association warned at its Singapore conference that about half of planned green steel projects have been delayed, while governments have committed just $20 billion of the $1.5 trillion needed to decarbonise the sector. Customers remain unwilling to pay a premium for cleaner steel, and new blast furnace capacity being built across India and Southeast Asia risks locking in emissions for decades. Meanwhile, China's coking coal market is adjusting after the Shanxi mine disaster — around 63% of suspended mines have resumed, but output remains below pre-accident levels, driving increased imports from Canada and Australia. Rare Earth Metals China's rare earth supply squeeze on Japan continues to bite. May customs data showed no shipments of terbium or dysprosium oxide to Japan since November, and only tiny yttrium oxide volumes since December. The curbs, triggered by a diplomatic breakdown over Taiwan, have spurred Japanese investment in alternative supply — Shin-Etsu Chemical is planning its first new rare earth refining facility since 2008. Separately, the UK announced £50 million in new funding for critical minerals, including £20 million for a rare earth magnet hub. Forex The euro softened to $1.1464, having hit a three-month low of $1.1418 on Friday, pressured by the hawkish Fed repricing and broader dollar strength. Sterling slipped 0.2% to $1.3210 on political uncertainty around PM Starmer's future — analysts at OCBC do not expect the pound's weakness to extend far if Burnham adheres to existing fiscal rules. The yen remains under acute pressure near 161.55 per dollar, close to levels not seen since 1986, with Japanese authorities reiterating readiness to intervene. The dollar's strength, driven by rising U.S. rate expectations, is a headwind for euro-denominated metals pricing. Watch Today ECB President Lagarde speaks before the European Parliament at 15:00 CET — her comments on the inflation outlook and rate path will be closely watched after the June 11 hike. EU flash consumer confidence for June is due at 16:00 CET. Fed Governor Waller also speaks today. The U.S. copper tariff review deadline of June 30 is now just eight days away.