Daily metals

The complex trades broadly softer against Wednesday's official close, with copper leading declines. Copper slips to 12,950 from 13,029.71 (-0.6%) and nickel eases to 16,580 from 16,635.62 (-0.3%), while aluminium bucks the trend at 3,134 versus 3,105.75 (+0.9%) — a modest bounce off three-month lows. Lead firms 0.6% to 1,893, tin adds 0.4% to 49,500 and zinc is essentially flat at 3,425.5. The tone follows Wednesday's heavy sell-off across the base complex, where aluminium and copper both broke key technical levels. Macro & Geopolitics Risk appetite returned overnight after blockbuster Micron earnings — $22 billion of customer commitments for memory chips — reignited the AI trade and lifted Asian tech. The Nikkei jumped over 4% and South Korea's KOSPI surged 5.5%, recouping much of Tuesday's rout. Yet rate-hike anxiety persists: traders now price three Fed hikes this year, with roughly a 67% probability of a September move. Oil has retraced to pre-war levels, with Brent near $72.50, as tankers stream through Hormuz and the fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire holds. Lebanon-Israel talks on territorial transfer add a constructive geopolitical note. The day's main catalyst is U.S. May PCE at 12:30 GMT, with core seen at 3.4% y/y and headline at 4.1% — any upside surprise would harden the hawkish Fed narrative and pressure metals further. Base Metals Aluminium remains the focal point after Wednesday'sslide to a 2026 low. Shanghai's most-active contract plunged 2.75% to 22,825 yuan, with an intraday trough at 22,665 yuan, while LME three-month touched $3,110 — down 18% from the 2 June four-year peak of $3,787.50. Macquarie sees a gradual downtrend through 2028 as Indonesian capacity, European restarts and a potential Gulf recovery rebuild supply. Copper broke the 100-day moving average at $13,158 on Wednesday, with Macquarie flagging 870,000 tons of stock built since early 2025 and projected surpluses. Codelco's new chairman Bernardo Fontaine signalled the Chilean state miner will consider asset sales and partnerships in a three-to-four-month strategic review — a structural watch-item for copper supply. Nickel found some support overnight, but Indonesia's ministry confirmed no full-year 2026 nickel quota has been set, leaving supply guidance opaque. Precious Metals Gold extended its rout, breaking decisively below $4,000 for the first time since November 2025 and trading near $3,971 in Asia — down 29% from January's $5,594.82 peak. ING cut Q3 and Q4 2026 averages to $4,300 and $4,600 (from $4,850 and $5,000). Silver collapsed 9.1% Wednesday to $56.41, now more than 50% below January highs; platinum lost 5.5% to $1,560 and palladium 6.8% to around $1,165, both near seven-month lows. ETF outflow risk is rising, though steady central-bank buying should cap downside. Today's PCE print is the next pivot. Steel Chinese coking coal rebounded on the Dalian exchange as production recovery in Shanxi slowed following the late-May fatal mine accident, with more mines reportedly halted under intensified safety inspections. Coke gained 0.33% to 1,953.5 yuan. SHFE steel benchmarks were mixed: rebar and HRC barely moved, while stainless dropped 0.78%. Lange Steel sees June daily crude output at around 2.7 million tons, just below May. In the U.S., U.S. Steel announced a $475 million investment in a new quench tempering line at its Fairfield Tubular Operations, targeting full production by Q2 2029 — a notable signal of OCTG capacity expansion despite soft global steel sentiment. Rare Earth Metals The DRC's strategic pivot continues to reshape critical-minerals flows: Kinshasa's quota system is squeezing Chinese cobalt imports — down to just 5,000 tons in January-April from nearly 200,000 tons a year earlier — while opening channels to Western buyers. Virtus Minerals' acquisition of Chemaf's copper-cobalt assets and a new Trafigura/EVelution MoU with state entity EGC to feed a planned Arizona refinery underscore the U.S.-backed pivot, supported by the Lobito Atlantic Railway. Separately, Zimbabwe's finance minister confirmed Harare will not delay the January 2027 ban on lithium concentrate exports, pressing Chinese miners to process domestically — relevant for European battery-chain diversification. Forex The euro languishes near one-year lows around $1.135, on track for its worst month since July 2025 (-2.5% in June), as the ECB-Fed policy divergence widens. The dollar index hit 101.80 Wednesday, a 13-month high, and holds at 101.6. For European metals buyers, the FX headwind is now meaningful: a 2.5% weaker euro compounds the local-currency cost of dollar-denominated LME contracts even where USD prices are falling. The yen sits at 161.73, within a whisker of breaching 161.96 — its lowest since 1986 — keeping Tokyo intervention risk firmly live. Sterling and the Swiss franc are also softer against the greenback. Watch Today U.S. May PCE inflation at 12:30 GMT is the week's main macro catalyst — consensus 0.3% m/m core, 3.4% y/y. The same release includes durable goods, final Q1 GDP and weekly jobless claims. ECB's Philip Lane and Piero Cipollone are scheduled to speak, with euro implications. German GfK consumer sentiment for July and French consumer confidence for June are also due.