Daily metals

Base metals opened Tuesday on a softer footing versus Monday's official close. Nickel led the declines, with three-month LME trade at $16,065/t against Monday's $16,208.3 close (-0.9%), while tin slipped to $52,450 from $52,659 (-0.4%). Copper eased marginally to $13,335 from $13,348.43 (-0.1%), aluminium was virtually flat at $3,104.5 versus $3,106.05, and zinc dipped to $3,581 from $3,591 (-0.3%). Lead bucked the trend, trading at $1,852.5 against Monday's $1,840.82 close (+0.6%). Macro & Geopolitics Sentiment across Asia soured on Tuesday despite Samsung flagging a nearly 20-fold jump in Q2 operating profit to 89.4 trillion won, as investors questioned AI valuations — Seoul's benchmark tumbled over 4% and Samsung shares fell more than 8%. European futures pointed lower, with Euro Stoxx 50 futures off 0.3%. Focus now shifts to Wednesday's FOMC minutes — the first under Chair Kevin Warsh — after last week's soft US payrolls pushed September rate-hike odds down to 56%. President Trump heads to the NATO summit in Turkey, where European leaders plan to unveil defence deals worth tens of billions. On the trade front, 22 Democratic state AGs are opposing Trump's proposed 10–12.5% tariffs on the EU and 59 other countries over forced-labour concerns, with a three-day USTR hearing beginning today. Base Metals Aluminium wavered after briefly touching a one-week high, with the complex softer on Tuesday morning as traders weighed Middle East supply normalisation against still-tight physical inventories — LME aluminium stocks at 295,550 tonnes are the lowest since September 2022, and Macquarie still sees a 930,000-tonne deficit this year. Copper remains in wait-and-see mode after last week's expected US tariff decision failed to materialise; the Commerce Secretary's June 30 deadline was only for an update to the President. BHP received approval for its $15 billion copper expansion in Chile, a longer-term supply signal. Congo flagged no major disruption to Q1 copper (823,887 t, a record) or cobalt output despite tighter sulphuric acid supply. Speculators trimmed bullish Comex copper positioning in the week to June 30. Precious Metals Gold retreated on Tuesday, with spot down around 0.9% to $4,126/oz after touching a two-week high on Monday. The pullback reflects a firmer dollar and positioning ahead of Wednesday's FOMC minutes, though bullion remains supported by dialled-back Fed hike expectations. Silver slipped 2% to $60.85, platinum eased 1.2% to $1,611 and palladium was down 0.6% at $1,261. In a structural development, Hong Kong launched a central gold clearing system and Delivery Connect with the Shanghai Gold Exchange, with tax incentives and a planned yuan-denominated gold futures contract as it competes with Singapore for Asian bullion hub status. Steel The EU's new steel import regime entered force on 1 July, cutting duty-free quotas by roughly 47% to 18.3 million tonnes annually and doubling the out-of-quota tariff to 50%. The European Commission published country-specific allocations on 30 June, with half the annual quota reserved for FTA partners. Imports falling within the available quotas can continue to enter the European market without paying the safeguard duty. Once the quota for a specific product category is exhausted, imports are subject to a 50% ad valorem duty, in addition to any other applicable customs duties. ArcelorMittal has been raising HRC delivery prices in recent months, with market sources reporting northern European HRC ex-works near €683/t at end-June. Separately, ArcelorMittal announced Geert Van Poelvoorde will retire as CEO of ArcelorMittal Europe. Rare Earth Metals Corporate Japan is sounding louder alarms over Chinese rare earth restrictions, with Mizuho warning a prolonged halt could shave more than 0.9% off Japanese GDP. Chinese customs data shows zero terbium or dysprosium oxide shipments to Japan from November through May. Lynas Rare Earths signed a long-term partnership with South Korea's JS Link to develop a 3,000 t/year NdFeB magnet factory in Kuantan, Malaysia, investing around A$50 million, with rare-earth supply locked in until January 2038. Meanwhile, France's Carester plans a rare earths separation plant in Perak, Malaysia, capable of processing 13,000 tonnes annually, with some concentrate off-take routed to its French plant — a notable step in European supply-chain diversification. Forex The euro traded flat around $1.1439 in early Asian hours, holding just above the recent 13-month low of $1.1325. The dollar index steadied near 100.89 after last week's softer payrolls capped its rebound. The main FX story remains the yen, which languished on the weaker side of 162 per dollar and hit its lowest against sterling since 2007 at 217.09 — intervention watch is intensifying ahead of Japan's 30-year JGB auction today. A softer yen and firmer dollar are marginally supportive of dollar-denominated metals demand from Asian buyers but headwind for European scrap exporters pricing in euros. Watch Today German industrial output for May (0600 BST) is the key European release, alongside UK Halifax house prices and the BoE financial stability report. US May trade data and a speech by Fed Governor Waller follow later. Traders will also monitor Japan's 30-year JGB auction for any yen intervention trigger, and the opening of the USTR's three-day hearing on proposed EU tariffs.