Daily metals

European base metals opened Wednesday on a firmer footing after fresh U.S. strikes on Iran reignited supply-risk premia. Copper trades at 13336, +0.3% versus Tuesday's official close of 13298.49, while nickel gains 0.1% to 16150 and lead sits little changed at 1848.5 (+0.1%). Aluminium is the outlier on the downside at 3104.5, down 0.9% from the 3131.34 close, as traders lock in profits after Tuesday's Hormuz-driven bounce. Tin (52850, -0.2%) and zinc (3560, -0.3%) trade marginally softer. Macro & Geopolitics The fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire has been jolted again after Washington launched a fresh wave of strikes on Iranian air defence and drone sites following projectile attacks on three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. also revoked Iran's oil-sales licence, prompting Tehran to warn of a "crushing response." Brent jumped roughly 2% to around $75.60/bbl, U.S. 10-year yields hit a one-month high of 4.565%, and the dollar firmed — a mix that has revived higher-for-longer rate fears in Europe just as CME FedWatch pricing swung to over 63% odds of a September Fed hike. Focus today shifts to the FOMC June minutes at 18:00 GMT, the first under Chair Kevin Warsh, plus the UK RICS housing survey. Base Metals Aluminium's early-Asia gains have faded into the European open, with LME three-month easing back below $3,130 after touching a one-week high near $3,156 overnight. The Middle East now accounts for roughly 9% of global smelting capacity, and Japanese Q3 premiums were just settled at $395/t — the highest since 2015 and up 12-13% quarter-on-quarter — underscoring physical tightness even as paper prices consolidate. Copper is rangebound as traders await Washington's decision on refined-copper import tariffs; the Yangshan premium has climbed to a 13-month high of $80/t, signalling firm Chinese buying. Zinc has pulled back from a two-week high at $3,600 while lead, nickel and tin trade in narrow ranges. Andy Home flags a structural shift: Shanghai nickel volumes tripled y/y in H1 as ShFE opened its contract to overseas players, with surplus Chinese metal building in ShFE warehouses rather than the LME — the beginnings of two distinct physical pricing centres. Precious Metals Gold swung between gains and losses overnight, last around $4,125/oz after dipping to a one-week low as the stronger dollar and higher Treasury yields offset the safe-haven bid from the Iran strikes. Traders are positioned cautiously into tonight's Fed minutes; September hike odds have jumped to 63-67% from 57% on Tuesday. China's PBoC extended gold buying for a 20th straight month in June, adding roughly 15 tonnes — the largest monthly addition since October 2023 — even as spot prices tumbled 11.7% on the month. Hong Kong launched its central gold clearing system and revived dollar-denominated gold futures. Silver hovers near $60.5/oz, platinum around $1,635 and palladium near $1,268. Steel The LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange are pushing ahead with the October launch of a dollar-settled HRC contract benchmarked to Shanghai prices — a rare cross-exchange tie-up that reflects China's dominance (SHFE traded 1.7 billion tonnes of HRC last year versus 1.4 million on the LME's Tianjin-based contract). For European mills, the more immediate story remains the new EU safeguard regime effective 1 July, which cut the tariff-free quota by roughly 47% to 18.3 million tonnes and doubled out-of-quota duties to 50%. Combined with CBAM, which entered its definitive phase on 1 January 2026, buyers are increasingly turning to European producers, lengthening delivery times and supporting domestic prices into H2. German E3 scrap has stabilised around €312.5/t ex-works after a firm May. Rare Earth Metals Canada's federal government agreed a potential C$400 million equity-like investment into Teck Resources' Trail smelter in British Columbia, part of a total C$850 million programme to expand production of germanium, antimony and gallium. The deal also frames an offtake agreement giving Ottawa rights over future output to be shared with G7 allies — the latest western move to build supply chains outside China, which controls over 90% of rare earth output and imposed export controls last year. Separately, Australia's Sovereign Metals said Rio Tinto has withdrawn as prospective operator of the Kasiya rutile-graphite project, with Sovereign pivoting to a U.S.-focused critical minerals strategy. Forex The euro slipped back to just above $1.14 as the dollar index firmed to around 101, propelled by higher Treasury yields and the flight-to-quality bid from renewed Middle East tensions. Dollar strength is a headwind for euro-denominated metal buyers and reinforces the pass-through into higher import costs for European fabricators already contending with the new steel safeguard regime. The yen breached 162/dollar, prompting intervention watch from Tokyo, while the New Zealand dollar firmed after the RBNZ raised rates as expected. Sterling is steady with UK housing survey data due today. Watch Today FOMC June meeting minutes at 18:00 GMT — the first under new Chair Kevin Warsh — will be the day's key macro event, with markets already pricing 60%+ odds of a September rate hike. UK RICS housing survey for June is also due, alongside continued monitoring of Strait of Hormuz shipping following the latest tanker strikes.