Daily metals

Base metals traded mixed in early Asian hours on Thursday, with most showing modest gains as markets digested renewed tensions in the Middle East following U.S. President Donald Trump's declaration that the interim peace deal with Iran was "over." Copper edged up 0.01% to $13,098.50 per metric ton, while tin led gains among base metals, rising 0.8% to $52,100. Aluminium, nickel, and zinc each added approximately 0.2%, trading at $3,133.50, $16,160, and $3,527 respectively. Lead was nearly flat, up 0.04% at $1,850. Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on Sentiment The metals complex faced headwinds after Trump said the memorandum of understanding signed with Iran to end the Gulf conflict was "over," triggering fresh military exchanges between the two nations. Iran's Revolutionary Guards said they targeted U.S. military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait after U.S. forces struck Iranian targets in response to attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices surged more than 5% on the news, with Brent crude jumping to around $78 per barrel, raising concerns about inflation and the potential for higher interest rates. "The resurgence of the Middle East conflict has led to short-term trading based on inflation and interest rate logic," Chinese broker Everbright Futures noted. Copper: Macro Concerns Dominate Copper declined on Wednesday after Trump's comments, as the fighting pushed oil prices up and contributed to concerns about the wider macroeconomic environment, especially around inflation and potential higher-for-longer U.S. interest rates. "Metals are seeing the initial reaction to higher oil prices and the market is waiting to see whether it escalates or whether it's just rhetoric once again," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. "The U.S. needs to sort this out because they cannot sustain high oil prices for long and their own reserves are starting to run low." Higher input costs, including from energy, have squeezed manufacturers. Chinese producer inflation neared a four-year high in June, data released on Thursday showed. Aluminium Supported by Supply Concerns Aluminium showed relative strength, supported by waning inventories and concerns about potential disruption to supply from the Middle East, which accounts for around 9% of global aluminium refining capacity. The metal had plunged 16% in June, its biggest monthly decline since the 2008 global financial crisis, after peace talks between the U.S. and Iran prompted traders to price out the war risk premium. "Copper is likely to remain driven by broader macro sentiment, while aluminium could continue to outperform if geopolitical tensions raise concerns over further supply disruptions," said Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING. Fed Minutes in Focus Markets awaited the release of minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's June meeting, which showed mounting concerns among policymakers about inflation. A few participants at the meeting saw a case to raise rates, before ultimately agreeing to hold rates steady. Fears that interest rates could go higher, dampening economic activity, have weighed on growth-dependent industrial metals. Regional Developments China: The most-traded copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 0.78% to 102,200 yuan per ton, while aluminium on the SHFE declined 0.76%. Iron Ore: Prices were range-bound as investors weighed potential supply risks from threatened strike action by BHP iron ore workers in Western Australia against seasonally weakening demand in top consumer China. The most-traded iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange added 0.27% to 745.5 yuan per metric ton. India: Silver import restrictions have created shortages in the world's biggest market for the precious metal, pushing premiums to their highest levels in six months at $6.5 per ounce, despite weaker-than-usual demand. Shipping & Freight The Baltic Exchange's dry bulk freight index fell 4 points, or 0.1%, to 2,871 on Wednesday, pressured by weakness in the capesize vessel category. The capesize index was down 34 points, or 0.8%, at 4,480, with average daily earnings falling $310 to $37,130. Outlook The balance of risks points to continued volatility, with oil prices and Middle East tensions likely to remain key drivers for metals markets in the near term. Iran appears determined to assert its influence over shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, while Washington and Gulf states insist on preserving freedom of navigation, creating conditions for a prolonged crisis. The International Monetary Fund lowered its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.0% on Wednesday, citing Middle East and trade risks, while raising its inflation forecast to 4.7%, further clouding the outlook for industrial metals demand.