Daily Metals

This Morning LME base metals are firmer into Friday's European session, extending Thursday's rebound. As of 04:59 GMT, copper trades at $13,356.5 (-0.6% vs Thursday's close), aluminium -1.2% at $3,162, nickel -0.2% at $16,350, zinc flat at $3,622. Tin rose 0.2% to $53,390 and lead firmed to $1,850. The pullback follows a strong Thursday in which copper, aluminium and zinc hit two-week highs on a softer dollar and easing Middle East risk premium. Macro & Geopolitics Markets are digesting a paradox: US-Iran tit-for-tat strikes continue, yet risk appetite is intact. Brent is on track for a 5% weekly gain but has retreated to ~$76/bbl. NY Fed's Williams said he didn't expect a sustained rise in energy prices this year, though CME FedWatch now shows a 63-64% probability of a September Fed hike, up from 54% a week ago. In Tokyo, FinMin Katayama said the government wants pension funds (including GPIF) to invest far more in domestic assets, lifting the yen off 40-year lows. Base Metals Copper closed Thursday +2.8% at $13,535/t — a two-week high — and is set for a 1.2% weekly gain. Aluminium is the standout, headed for its best week since April (+4%), supported by LME stocks at 289,225t (lowest since Sept 2022) and Gulf supply disruption; the shock is reviving mothballed Western capacity (Magnitude 7's New Madrid smelter and Hydro's Slovalco JV, each restarting 75,000 tpy potlines). Zinc hit a three-week peak near $3,638 after a fire at Young Poong's Seokpo smelter in South Korea knocked out a sulphuric acid facility — though the company says it's not core zinc production equipment, with no casualties. Indonesia's Alamtri shipped its first primary aluminium cargoes in June, targeting 350,000t of ingot sales this year. Precious Metals Gold is heading for a weekly loss of ~1-1.5%, near $4,113/oz after Thursday's 1%+ bounce, squeezed between Gulf safe-haven demand and hawkish Fed repricing. HSBC cut its 2026 average gold forecast to $4,560/oz (from $4,864) and 2027 to $4,925. Silver ~$60.34, platinum $1,632, palladium $1,268 — all set for weekly declines despite Thursday rallies. Steel Salzgitter will take full ownership of Hüttenwerke Krupp Mannesmann (HKM) from thyssenkrupp Steel and Vallourec, cutting the Duisburg workforce from ~3,000 to 1,000 by end-2028 and reducing crude steel output to 2Mt/year. The HKM supply contract now expires in 2028 rather than 2032. Salzgitter plans an electric arc furnace targeting 90% CO2 reduction — underscoring pressure on European integrated steelmakers from energy costs, Chinese competition and the ETS transition. Rare Earth Metals South Korea and Mongolia signed 21 cooperation agreements including on critical minerals, as Seoul diversifies away from Chinese supply. In Canada, PM Carney used the first Canadian PM visit to Saudi Arabia in 26 years to pitch deeper mining ties. The IUCN warned that 62% of hydrothermal vent mollusc species face extinction from deep-sea mining ahead of the ISA's July 13-31 Jamaica meeting on seabed extraction of copper, cobalt and zinc. Forex The euro is holding above $1.14 as the dollar heads for a third daily decline (DXY ~100.9), a tailwind for dollar-denominated metals. Sterling steady near $1.34. The yen firmed 0.5%+ to ~161.45 after Katayama's GPIF comments, retreating from the 40-year low near 162.84. Watch Today German HICP final (06:00 GMT) and French CPI (06:45 GMT) headline the European calendar and will shape the euro and ECB rate path. China's June total social financing and M2 are also due. Middle East headlines and oil moves remain the dominant cross-asset driver.