Daily metals

Base metals open Tuesday on a mixed footing after Monday's official close, with the LME complex still digesting the Gulf re-escalation. Copper trades at $13,484/t, essentially flat versus Monday's $13,487.86 close (-0.0%). Aluminium is the notable laggard, slipping to $3,147/t from $3,168.15 (-0.7%), while tin firms to $52,705 from $52,208 (+1.0%), the biggest gainer. Nickel edges up to $16,595 from $16,565.72 (+0.2%), lead rises to $1,840 from $1,822.04 (+1.0%), and zinc adds to $3,581.5 from $3,566 (+0.4%). Macro & Geopolitics The Gulf conflict dominates cross-asset flows for a third session. President Trump reinstated the US naval blockade of Iranian shipping and threatened a 20% fee on cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz, sending Brent to a one-month high above $85/bbl after a near-9% surge on Monday. The energy shock is reinforcing a hawkish Fed repricing: Governor Waller flagged rate hikes may be needed "in the near term," and Fed funds futures now imply a roughly 43% chance of a July hike, with September odds near 76%. All eyes turn to US June CPI (12:30 GMT) and Fed Chair Warsh's first Congressional testimony. Asian equities slumped, led by a sharp Korean selloff, while European futures pointed sharply lower. Base Metals Copper held broadly steady, with three-month LME hovering around $13,500 in Asian trade as the Hormuz escalation cut both ways h supporting prices on supply-chain disruption fears while demand worries from higher-for-longer rates cap gains. LME copper stocks have fallen more than 20% since late May to a four-month low near 305,200 tonnes, with cancelled warrants around 43% flagging further US-bound outflows ahead of possible tariffs; the tightening stock picture is building a firmer price floor across the complex. Aluminium eased despite the Middle East risk to Gulf supply, weighed by record Chinese exports of 711,000 tonnes in June. Tin drew support from Alphamin's record Q2 EBITDA guidance of $167m, while zinc, lead and nickel traded narrowly. Precious Metals Gold steadied around $4,010-4,020/oz in Asian trade, recovering from a two-week low after Monday's near-3% slide h its worst session in over a month. The rates channel is overpowering the safe-haven bid: rising Treasury yields and a firm dollar are penalising the non-yielding metal even as Gulf risk intensifies. Silver hovered near $57-58/oz after a sharp drop, while platinum slipped to around $1,600 and palladium firmed modestly above $1,250. Traders are sidelined ahead of the CPI print and Warsh testimony, both potential catalysts for the next directional move. Steel Europe's new Steel Safeguard Regulation continues to underpin sentiment, with Fastmarkets' Northern Europe HRC index at €690.94/t on 2 July h up €9/t on day two of the tighter quota regime that cut duty-free volumes 47% and lifted the out-of-quota duty to 50%. Buyers report a calm summer with ample material on hand, limiting mills' ability to push tightness downstream amid weak construction and automotive demand. On the global picture, Chinese steel product exports stayed elevated at 10.32 million tonnes in June despite a marginal monthly dip, keeping international competition intense; H1 exports were down 5.6% year-on-year at 54.87 million tonnes. Rare Earth Metals China's customs data underscored the persistent squeeze: June rare earth exports fell 34% year-on-year to 5,105 tonnes, with H1 shipments down 6.4% at 30,483 tonnes h keeping availability, not headline price, the binding constraint for European magnet makers dependent on Chinese heavy rare earths. Western derisking took a notable step as Australia's Treasurer stripped three China-linked offshore investors of their voting rights in rare-earths developer Northern Minerals after they failed to divest under May orders. For European buyers, over 90% reliant on external magnet supply, the combination of tight Chinese flows and slow Western scale-up keeps the strategic bottleneck firmly in focus. Forex The euro remains under pressure near $1.14 as the hawkish Fed repricing and the euro area's exposure to imported energy weigh, with the dollar index holding around 101.2 h near its monthly high. The energy shock is a particular headwind for the single currency given Europe's oil-import dependence. Sterling eased to around $1.334 at the start of a pivotal UK political week. The yen slid back above 162/USD, giving up ground gained after Finance Minister Katayama's comments on encouraging domestic pension repatriation. For European metal buyers, the softer euro partially offsets the dollar-priced LME complex. Watch Today US June CPI at 12:30 GMT is the marquee release, followed by Fed Chair Warsh's first semi-annual testimony to Congress. US bank earnings (JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, BofA, Citi, Wells Fargo) kick off Q2 season. Germany auctions 2-year debt. Any fresh Strait of Hormuz headlines and oil moves remain the dominant cross-asset driver.