Daily metals

Base metals trade broadly stronger on Wednesday, supported by a weaker dollar and lower expectations for US rate hikes. Copper, however, falls to $13,530/t (-0.5%), the weakest in the pack. Lead drops the most to $1,803 (-0.9%) due to a 14-year inventory high. Zinc slips slightly to $3,589.5 (-0.2%). Tin is the only gainer, rising to $53,500 (+0.2%), while nickel and aluminum stay nearly unchanged. Macro & Geopolitics US inflation (CPI) unexpectedly fell 0.4% in June – the first decline since the pandemic. Annual rate: 3.5%, core: 2.6%. Markets now see lower odds of a July rate hike (16%) and higher odds for September (58%). This weakened the dollar. Meanwhile, Trump reimposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports and threatened strikes, keeping oil prices (Brent) above $85. China's Q2 economic growth disappointed at 4.3% due to weak domestic demand. Base Metals Copper benefits from the good inflation data and weak dollar. The key bullish factor remains physical scarcity in China: the Yangshan import premium hit its highest level since May 2025. The Iran escalation raises concerns about sulfur(ic acid) supply, important for copper leaching. Aluminum stays strong on risks to smelting capacity in the Middle East. Lead remains weak after a large delivery from Trafigura to LME warehouses in Singapore. Rio Tinto's copper production fell 7% in Q2 due to problems at two mines. Precious Metals Gold eases to around $4,030/oz, despite the favorable inflation data, as rising oil prices reignite inflation concerns. Silver holds around $58.4/oz, platinum at $1,630, and palladium at $1,300 – both consolidating after a strong rally on Tuesday. US PPI data follows later today. Citi maintains its three-year price targets: $1,950 for platinum and $1,500 for palladium. Steel China's crude steel production rose in June to a three-year high, despite falling profitability – only 51% of Chinese steelmakers are now profitable. In Germany, low Rhine water levels are causing problems: Thyssenkrupp halted barge traffic to Duisburg and cut production due to restricted raw material supply. Rare Earths Alcoa, backed by Australia, Japan, and the US, is building a gallium plant in Western Australia – with potential to supply up to 10% of global gallium production. This marks a step toward reducing dependence on China for this critical material. Forex The euro recovers above $1.14 following the weak US inflation data. The dollar weakens broadly, except against the yen. The ECB is keeping the door open for a rate hike in September. Today's Focus Key event: US PPI data (12:30 GMT) and Fed speakers. The Bank of Canada is expected to hold rates at 2.25%. ASML releases earnings. Developments in the Strait of Hormuz remain the dominant cross-asset driver.