Daily metals

This Morning Base metals are mixed in early Thursday trading compared with Wednesday’s official close. Lead is the weakest, down 0.9% at $1,841/t, followed by nickel, off 0.7% at $16,900/t, and tin, 0.2% lower at $53,500/t. Zinc leads the gains, rising 0.6% to $3,614/t, while copper is up 0.3% at $13,853.50/t and aluminium has added 0.2% to $3,198/t. Copper remains within reach of $14,000/t, but high prices are testing physical demand. Macro & Geopolitics Brent has reached $96/bbl as renewed U.S. strikes on Iran and Houthi attacks on tankers widen the threat to Middle Eastern energy routes. The resulting inflation risk has lifted short-dated U.S. yields, with markets assigning roughly a 77% probability to a Federal Reserve increase in September. The ECB is expected to leave rates unchanged today, although higher energy costs may encourage policymakers to retain a tightening bias. European equity futures indicate a subdued opening despite strong Asian technology shares. Trade friction also persists: new U.S. tariffs on Brazilian products affect sectors including steel and aluminium, prompting Brasília to propose 18.5 billion reais, or about $3.66 billion, in financing for affected companies. Base Metals Copper is edging higher as shrinking LME and Shanghai inventories, continuing U.S.-bound shipments and a Yangshan import premium of $115/t point to constrained availability. However, elevated prices and premiums are deterring Chinese fabricators, limiting momentum near $14,000/t. Longer-term supply expectations are mixed: Sandfire reported stronger quarterly production, while Panama is considering a state-backed structure that could eventually reopen Cobre Panama. Aluminium is supported by broad base-metal strength, although record Guinean bauxite exports highlight ample upstream material. Lead pricing remains vulnerable to warehouse distortions after large warrant cancellations followed a surge in Singapore stocks. Zinc is outperforming this morning, while nickel and tin are retreating. Precious Metals Gold is holding near $4,132/oz after retreating from Wednesday’s two-week peak of $4,165.87. Safe-haven demand from the Middle East conflict remains supportive, but surging oil prices and expectations of renewed monetary tightening are restricting follow-through. Silver has risen 0.3% to about $59.90/oz, platinum is 0.7% higher near $1,656/oz and palladium has gained 0.8% to roughly $1,301/oz. Attention is shifting towards next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. Steel Brazil’s new 25% U.S. tariffs affect products in sectors including steel and aluminium, increasing the risk of diverted material and more aggressive competition in alternative markets. The Brazilian government has proposed 18.5 billion reais in credit to help affected exporters fund working capital, equipment and market diversification. In Europe, Finnish casting supplier Componenta reported stronger second-quarter sales and EBITDA but warned that the Middle East situation is contributing to accelerating inflation and near-term cost pressures. Saudi Steel Pipe separately secured a 92.7 million-riyal Aramco order, supporting regional pipe demand into 2027. Rare Earth Metals India and Myanmar are moving towards closer cooperation on rare-earth mining as New Delhi seeks supply channels outside China. Nearly half of the world’s heavy rare-earth supply is extracted from mines in Myanmar’s Kachin state, although most of the material currently moves to China for processing. Supply diversification remains difficult: U.S. officials say Chinese critical-mineral deliveries are still below desired volumes despite earlier agreements. Western processing investment is nevertheless advancing, with Nth Cycle planning to go public through a SPAC merger valuing the company at $585 million, helping finance additional refining capacity and reduce reliance on Chinese processors. Forex The euro is holding around $1.14 ahead of the ECB decision, with its immediate direction likely to depend on how strongly policymakers emphasise the inflationary impact of higher energy prices. A hawkish signal could support the currency and partially reduce dollar-denominated metal costs for European buyers. The dollar remains underpinned by safe-haven flows and rising U.S. rate expectations. The yen is near 163 per dollar, keeping intervention concerns elevated, while South Korea’s won has strengthened to around 1,468 after better-than-expected growth and strong chip exports. Watch Today The ECB announces its rate decision at 14:15 CEST, followed by eurozone consumer confidence at 16:00 CEST. U.S. weekly jobless claims are due at 14:30 CEST. Intel’s results after the U.S. close may offer another signal on semiconductor and data-centre investment demand.