Daily metals

This Morning Zinc is setting the pace at the start of Tuesday, trading 2.1% above Friday’s official close at $3,964.50 a tonne. Nickel is up 0.8% at $16,830 and copper has advanced 0.7% to $14,387.50. Tin is the main laggard, falling 1.0% to $54,300, while lead is 0.1% lower and aluminium is effectively unchanged. The overall tone is positive, but gains remain concentrated in supply-sensitive zinc and copper. Macro & Geopolitics European markets face a difficult mix of expensive energy, rising borrowing costs and renewed Middle East conflict. Brent moved above $91 after fresh U.S.-Iran fighting revived supply fears, while Europe’s benchmark gas price reached a three-and-a-half-year high. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields climbed to 4.78%, with French and German debt also under pressure as markets increased bets on near-term rate rises. Markets are pricing a 66% chance of a U.S. rate hike in September, while an ECB increase next week is widely expected. Higher financing and energy costs threaten industrial demand and margins across Europe, even as supply risks support commodities. Base Metals Zinc reached its highest level since May 2022 as shrinking refined inventories outside China and scarce concentrate continued to squeeze availability. Negative treatment charges are putting pressure on refiners and prompting some Chinese smelters to bring forward maintenance, although the scale of speculative positioning leaves the market vulnerable to sharp corrections. Copper is benefiting from tight exchange inventories and weaker Chilean supply: July output in the world’s largest producing country fell 9.4% year on year after severe weather and mine maintenance. Aluminium and nickel are posting moderate gains despite the rise in bond yields, while lead remains close to Friday’s settlement. Tin is underperforming, giving back part of its recent strength. Precious Metals Gold slipped 0.4% to about $4,429 an ounce as higher bond yields and growing expectations of U.S. monetary tightening outweighed safe-haven demand from the Middle East conflict. Silver eased 0.2% to $66.42, while platinum gained 0.4% to roughly $1,798 and palladium held near $1,355. Attention is shifting to this week’s U.S. labour-market data, which may influence expectations for a September rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Steel The outlook for European flat-steel consumption has weakened further as Volkswagen considers a restructuring that could include plant closures and another 50,000 job reductions. Management estimates that maintaining production unchanged at four German sites would create an annual cost disadvantage of around €1.5 billion. Any reduction in vehicle production could weigh on automotive steel demand, while restructuring could also generate industrial scrap. Elevated European gas prices are adding pressure to both automakers and energy-intensive steel producers. Rare Earth Metals Competition for non-Chinese rare-earth supply is intensifying. Australia’s government has approved exports of rare-earth concentrate from Astron’s Donald project to the United States, while OD6 Metals is positioning its Quinn project for U.S. federal critical-minerals programmes. The moves reinforce Washington’s effort to secure allied feedstock and processing capacity. For European consumers, stronger U.S. procurement could accelerate project development but may also increase competition for future material outside China. Forex The euro was steady near $1.162 despite eurozone bond yields reaching multi-year highs. Expectations of an ECB rate increase next week are offering some support, but Europe’s rising gas-import bill and fragile industrial outlook limit the currency’s upside. The dollar has gained little from the global bond selloff because yields are climbing across several major economies. A firmer euro would reduce local-currency metal costs for European buyers, while renewed weakness would amplify already elevated copper and zinc prices. Watch Today Flash eurozone inflation and July unemployment figures are due after final manufacturing PMI readings from France, Germany and the wider currency bloc. The U.S. session brings JOLTS job openings and the ISM manufacturing survey. Strong inflation or activity figures could reinforce rate-rise expectations and increase pressure on growth-sensitive metals.