Daily metals

This Morning Lead is the strongest base metal early Thursday, trading 1.2% above Wednesday’s official close, while tin and zinc are both up 0.4%. Copper has added 0.1%, leaving it close to the previous settlement. Aluminium is the clear laggard, down 0.9%, and nickel has slipped 0.1%. The mixed opening reflects improving risk appetite and a softer dollar, offset by caution over interest rates and industrial demand. Macro & Geopolitics Global bonds and equities are staging a relief rally as U.S. Treasury yields retreat, although the inflation threat from Brent crude near $95 remains unresolved. Markets now price roughly a 62% probability of a quarter-point Federal Reserve increase this month, down from higher estimates earlier in the week after U.S. private payrolls rose by only 38,000 in August. The U.S.-Iran conflict continues to threaten energy supplies and raise European production costs. Attention now turns to European services activity and producer prices, followed by Friday’s U.S. payrolls report, with major central banks facing a difficult balance between inflation control and weakening demand. Base Metals Aluminium is underperforming the complex this morning despite low exchange inventories and constrained production growth. LME stocks remain close to a 36-year low, while Gulf supply disruption continues to restrict availability, although lower fourth-quarter premium offers in Japan suggest Asian conditions may gradually loosen. Zinc’s 0.4% advance reflects more immediate scarcity: almost a third of registered LME stocks are cancelled, the cash market remains in steep backwardation and global mine output fell 2.6% in the first half of 2026. Copper is little changed as tight nearby spreads compete with the launch of cathode output at Russia’s sanctioned Udokan project. Lead and tin are firmer, while nickel remains subdued. Precious Metals Gold has rebounded above $4,430 an ounce as the dollar and Treasury yields ease, with silver around $66.08, platinum near $1,778 and palladium around $1,357. The Dutch central bank’s transfer of 86 tonnes of gold from North America to London reinforces bullion’s strategic role during geopolitical stress. PGM sentiment may also draw support from a strike beginning Thursday at parts of Sibanye-Stillwater’s U.S. operations, while Impala Platinum’s annual earnings, which rose more than 31-fold, underline the benefit of stronger prices. Steel Europe’s steel-consuming automotive sector remains constrained by weak demand, excess capacity and high production costs. Debate over extending Germany’s standard metalworking week from 35 to 40 hours may reduce unit labour costs, but would not address Volkswagen’s plans to remove substantial capacity from its European network. Construction-material investment offers a more positive signal: Holcim has opened a 40-million-Swiss-franc calcined-clay production line in the Czech Republic. Automotive restructuring remains a drag on ferrous demand, while decarbonisation projects provide selective industrial support. Rare Earth Metals Critical-mineral investment continues to focus on supply-chain diversification and recycling. Ionic Rare Earths and USSM plan a $100 million U.S. joint venture for NdFeB and samarium-cobalt magnet recycling facilities. Brazil’s Congress has also approved a national critical-minerals framework, including a 2-billion-real guarantee fund and 5 billion reais of tax credits over five years, pending presidential approval. These initiatives could support the longer-term development of non-Chinese supply chains, but new processing capacity, qualified recycled material and reliable offtake flows will take time to reach commercial scale. Forex The dollar index has eased 0.2% to 99.39 as Treasury yields retreat, allowing the euro to firm modestly to about $1.1598. That move offers limited relief to European buyers of dollar-denominated metals, particularly aluminium and copper, although the euro remains exposed to high imported-energy costs and broader monetary-policy uncertainty. The yen has strengthened sharply to around 157.64 per dollar, its highest since August 10, as Japanese bond yields fall and markets reassess the likelihood of near-term policy action in Tokyo. Watch Today Final services PMI readings are due from France, Germany, the eurozone and the UK, alongside eurozone producer-price data. U.S. jobless claims, trade figures and services-sector surveys follow, while Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller is scheduled to speak at 12:30 GMT. French and UK government bond auctions will also test demand after this week’s sharp increase in European yields.