Daily metals

This Morning Base metals opened Monday on a mixed footing against Friday’s official close. Zinc led the market, advancing 0.4%, while copper was the weakest performer, declining 0.6%. Lead eased 0.1%. Aluminium, nickel and tin were effectively unchanged after rounding to one decimal place. Macro & Geopolitics Stronger U.S. employment data has shifted the rates backdrop against metals, with August payrolls rising by 162,000 versus expectations of 56,000. Markets were pricing roughly a 58% probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase at its September 15–16 meeting. Energy inflation is adding to the pressure: Brent crude approached $97 a barrel after renewed U.S.-Iran attacks around Gulf shipping routes, while diesel prices reached record highs last week. The European Central Bank is also expected to raise interest rates on Thursday. A U.S. public holiday should reduce liquidity, potentially exaggerating moves driven by geopolitical headlines. Base Metals Copper retreated after recording a 10th consecutive weekly gain, with stronger U.S. payrolls outweighing continued evidence of tight availability outside the United States. Inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 13% last week to 63,000 tonnes, their lowest level since January 2024, while London Metal Exchange copper stocks also declined. Immediate short-squeeze concerns have moderated as the COMEX-LME price gap narrowed and cancelled LME warrants decreased, although further metal flows into the United States could again tighten availability elsewhere. Zinc outperformed this morning, climbing 0.4% from Friday’s official close. Lead edged lower, while aluminium, nickel and tin showed little net movement. Worley said BHP had awarded it contracts related to the Olympic Dam and Carrapateena expansion projects in South Australia, supporting longer-term copper investment. Precious Metals Gold fell 0.6% to around $4,403 an ounce as the payrolls surprise lifted expectations for higher interest rates. Silver declined 0.6% to about $65.80, platinum lost 1.1% to roughly $1,801 and palladium eased 0.5% to $1,394. Thursday’s U.S. producer-price report and Friday’s consumer-price data are the principal catalysts this week, with stronger inflation likely to increase pressure on non-yielding precious metals despite elevated Gulf risks. Steel Jindal Stainless has entered a technical-assistance agreement with JFE Steel covering ferritic stainless-steel grades. JFE will support Jindal Stainless on product quality and manufacturing practices. In the UK, reports that Jaguar Land Rover may cut around 4,000 roles provide a less encouraging signal from the automotive supply chain, although Britain’s business minister is due to discuss the situation with the carmaker. Forex The dollar index held near 99.14 after receiving only limited support from the U.S. employment surprise. The euro traded around $1.161, remaining comparatively firm ahead of Thursday’s expected ECB rate increase. The yen was also resilient near 156 per dollar following a 2.4% weekly gain, as markets increased bets on Bank of Japan tightening. Higher interest-rate expectations and Gulf-driven energy costs may keep currency markets volatile. Watch Today German industrial-output figures for July, September eurozone Sentix investor-confidence data, and revised second-quarter eurozone GDP and employment figures are due during the European session. UK house-price and retail-sales indicators will also be released. U.S. markets are closed for a public holiday, leaving European data and developments around Gulf shipping routes as the main immediate catalysts.