Daily metals

This Morning Base metals were mixed at the start of Thursday’s business day compared with Wednesday’s official close. Tin led the gains, rising 0.7%, while copper added 0.2% and remained close to its record high. Lead was the weakest metal, falling 1.1%, followed by nickel and zinc, which each lost about 0.5%. Aluminium eased 0.2%. Macro & Geopolitics European markets are focused on the ECB, which is widely expected to raise interest rates today as oil-driven inflation pressures build. Brent crude remained above $100 a barrel after a major escalation in attacks on shipping involving Iran and the United States. Higher energy prices could add to fuel, freight and financing costs for European metal recyclers and processors. U.S. producer-price data are also due today, followed by consumer inflation on Friday. Markets currently see roughly a 60% chance of a Federal Reserve rate increase next week, although most economists expect rates to remain unchanged. Base Metals Copper stayed close to Wednesday’s record high, supported by limited stocks available for delivery outside the United States. Large volumes remain concentrated in COMEX warehouses after imports were brought forward ahead of possible U.S. tariffs. Some inflows into LME warehouses have reduced the immediate shortage, however, with the cash premium falling sharply since mid-August. Zinc remained above $4,000 a tonne, backed by mine-supply problems, but slipped this morning alongside aluminium, nickel and lead. Tin outperformed, extending gains in both London and Shanghai. Expensive oil and rising bond yields remain risks to industrial demand. Precious Metals Gold edged 0.3% higher to about $4,414 an ounce as the softer dollar outweighed pressure from rising bond yields. Silver also gained 0.3%, while palladium added 0.2%. Platinum fell 0.4%, contrasting with Wednesday’s strong advance. The market is now waiting for U.S. inflation figures, which could alter expectations for interest rates. Switzerland has also joined the EU in banning purchases and imports of Sudanese gold, with the measures taking effect on September 10. Steel Ukraine’s steel output fell 12.5% year on year to 4.3 million tonnes during January-August, while August production dropped 57.3%. The figures underline continuing supply risks after a Russian attack forced the Zaporizhstal plant to halt production. Separately, the LME will launch a hot-rolled coil steel contract based on Shanghai Futures Exchange prices on October 27. The contract could give European traders easier access to a Chinese steel benchmark, although it may also increase China’s influence over international pricing. Rare Earth Metals The United States said it would support Kenya in developing local critical-mineral processing as competition with China over supply chains intensifies. Kenya is considering investors for the Mrima Hill deposit, which is expected to contain rare earths and niobium. Viridis Mining selected Sedgman and Blossom as engineering, procurement and construction management partners for its Colossus rare earth project. In recycling, Mitsubishi Materials plans to double annual capacity for producing ammonium paratungstate, a tungsten intermediate, at its Akita facility and increase its use of domestic scrap, complementing a separate €50 million expansion at H.C. Starck Tungsten in Germany. Forex The euro was steady near $1.1637 before the ECB decision. A rate increase could support the currency, lowering the euro cost of dollar-priced metals, although higher borrowing costs may weaken manufacturing and construction demand. The dollar remained subdued despite rising U.S. yields, helping copper and precious metals hold firm. The yen traded around 153.4 per dollar after gaining about 4% this month as markets prepared for faster Bank of Japan tightening. Sharp currency moves remain an added source of risk for importers and exporters. Watch Today The ECB announces its policy decision later today, followed by President Christine Lagarde’s press conference. Final German inflation figures and U.S. producer-price data are also due. These releases could move the euro, bond yields and dollar-priced metals during the European session.