Daily Metals

THIS MORNING At the start of Friday’s business day, the supplied trade indications stand above Thursday’s official close for five of the six base metals. Tin shows the widest gap at 5.6%, followed by zinc at 3.8%, nickel at 2.9% and aluminium at 2.3%. Copper is 1.3% higher, while lead is the exception at 1.1% below Thursday’s close. Caution is needed because the supplied trade indications are dated October 9 and are therefore older than the official closing prices. MACRO & GEOPOLITICS Markets steadied on Friday after heavy selling in technology shares, but concerns over debt-funded artificial intelligence investment remained a risk for copper and wider market confidence. Hot US producer inflation kept interest-rate fears alive, although traders put the chance of an October Federal Reserve increase at about 28%. The dollar weakened as government bond yields fell. Brent crude eased towards $105.50 a barrel as traders weighed Middle East shipping attacks against possible US sanctions relief for some oil tankers. Meanwhile, progress towards reducing US tariffs on Mexican steel, aluminium and vehicles reportedly stalled. BASE METALS LME copper rose 0.9% in early Friday trade to around $14,468 a tonne, recovering from a near two-week low but remaining down on the week. The rebound followed firmer Asian shares, although inflation worries and weakness in AI-related stocks continued to limit confidence. Talks at Chile’s Centinela mine produced no breakthrough, keeping some supply risk in the market, while production has so far continued as planned. Aluminium gained 0.8% to $3,010 but headed for a fourth weekly decline as supply appeared more comfortable. Zinc rose 1%, tin 1.8%, lead 0.6% and nickel 0.4%. PRECIOUS METALS Gold edged 0.2% higher to about $4,178 an ounce as the softer dollar improved buying interest, though it remained on course for a small weekly loss. Strong US consumer and producer inflation is still a headwind because higher interest rates reduce the attraction of metals that pay no income. Silver gained 0.7% to $57.81, platinum rose 1.1% to $1,642.75 and palladium added 1.5% to $1,143.46. All three were still heading for weekly declines. STEEL Heathrow signed a memorandum of understanding with 7 Steel UK to support the use of Welsh steel in its airport expansion. Trade policy remains less supportive: negotiations to reduce US tariffs on Mexican steel and aluminium have reportedly stalled, leaving the existing 50% metals duties under discussion. FOREX The dollar index hovered near 102 and was heading for its first weekly decline in five weeks as lower US bond yields outweighed strong inflation data. The euro recovered to around $1.1217 after falling as low as $1.1113 on Wednesday, reducing some of the recent currency pressure on euro-based metal buyers. Sterling held near $1.3278 after Thursday’s advance. A stronger euro makes dollar-priced metals cheaper for European consumers, although sharp currency swings may continue while markets reassess US interest-rate prospects. WATCH TODAY European traders will focus on final September euro-area inflation figures and Italy’s final consumer-price reading. US September industrial production, import and export data are due later and could shift the dollar, rate expectations and industrial-metal sentiment.