Daily Metals

THIS MORNING The supplied reference prices show a mixed picture against Monday’s official close. Lead has the widest negative gap at 4.4%, while zinc is 0.2% lower. Tin stands 3.7% above Monday’s close, followed by copper at 1.4%, nickel at 0.6% and aluminium at 0.5%. These comparisons are not live Tuesday moves: the supplied trade levels are dated October 9, while the official closes are from Monday, October 26. MACRO & GEOPOLITICS Risk appetite improved after Anthropic’s IPO filing revived interest in AI-related shares, supporting metals linked to data centres, semiconductors and power networks. However, markets remain cautious ahead of policy decisions from the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan. All three are widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, while investors will assess policymakers’ comments for clues about possible rate increases in December. New Zealand and Canada are also expected to raise rates this week. Brent crude eased toward $115 a barrel but remained near a six-month high as investors weighed diplomatic efforts to ease the conflict in the Middle East against continuing threats to oil supplies. Elevated energy prices remain a major risk to European factory margins, inflation and the euro. BASE METALS Zinc led Monday’s LME trading, rising 2.1% to a two-week high of $3,821.50 a metric ton. Prices were supported by falling inventories, high electricity costs and declining production in Peru. The global refined zinc market moved into a deficit in August, while Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks fell 5% from the previous week to their lowest level since March. Copper was broadly steady, supported by signs of stronger Chinese demand. The Yangshan import premium reached its highest level since 2014, while Shanghai copper stocks fell by more than 25% to 54,356 tons. Copper also benefited from renewed enthusiasm for AI infrastructure, although rising LME inventories—most of which were held in North America—and uncertainty over future U.S. tariffs continue to distort regional availability. Aluminium edged lower and nickel fell, while lead and tin gained. More broadly, copper remains supported by expectations of long-term demand from data centres and electrification, even as analysts warn that global inventories are elevated and regional shortages do not necessarily indicate a worldwide supply deficit. PRECIOUS METALS Gold slipped 0.2% early Tuesday to around $4,007 an ounce as the U.S. dollar held near a one-week high. Investors are awaiting Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision and Thursday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation data for clues about the path of interest rates. Gold fell below $4,000 last week for the first time since mid-July and recorded its worst weekly decline in about four months. Traders are pricing in a low probability of a rate increase this week but a substantially higher probability of a December increase. Higher interest rates generally reduce the appeal of non-yielding bullion. Spot silver, platinum and palladium also moved lower in early Tuesday trading. Geopolitical uncertainty and elevated energy prices continue to provide underlying support for precious metals, but firmer interest-rate expectations are limiting gains.