Daily Metals

THIS MORNING At the start of Monday’s business day, the supplied reference levels put tin 4.7% above Friday’s official close, making it the strongest positive gap. Zinc is 1.6% higher and copper 1.4% higher, while aluminium is up 0.4%. Lead shows the largest negative gap at 3.6%, followed by nickel at 1.3%. These are not live Monday moves: the supplied trade levels date from October 9, while the official closes are from October 23. MACRO & GEOPOLITICS Markets began Monday cautiously as oil pulled back from six-month highs but remained near $114 a barrel following reported Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure. Reports of Qatari mediation in Tehran offered some relief, although the attacks kept energy-supply concerns in focus. High energy costs continue to threaten industrial margins and complicate the inflation outlook. The Federal Reserve, ECB and Bank of Japan are expected to keep rates unchanged this week, while markets anticipate increases in Canada and New Zealand and are pricing a possible US rate hike in December. Tariffs remain a longer-term trade issue: Audi’s proposed $4 billion US factory highlights automakers’ efforts to expand production near American customers, although the plant still requires final approval. BASE METALS London copper eased 0.6% early Monday as LME stocks climbed to their highest level since July, reducing immediate supply concerns. Most of the recent deposits were in North America, where expectations of possible US tariffs had previously attracted metal. Chinese demand provided some support, with the Yangshan copper premium at its highest since 2014 and Shanghai-monitored stocks falling by more than a quarter. Nickel was the weakest LME metal, down 1.2%; aluminium lost 0.4%, tin 0.2%, lead 0.2% and zinc 0.1%. Higher energy prices are adding to concerns about global economic growth and demand for industrial metals. PRECIOUS METALS Gold edged 0.4% higher to around $4,010 an ounce as softer oil prices reduced some inflation concerns. Silver gained 0.6% to about $54.19, platinum was steady near $1,551 and palladium rose 0.6%. The rebound followed gold’s 4% weekly fall, its steepest since June. Attention now turns to the Federal Reserve’s policy decision on Wednesday, October 28, and US inflation data due on Thursday, October 29. Expectations of a possible December rate increase may limit gains because higher interest rates make non-yielding precious metals less attractive. STEEL BlueScope Steel expects first-half underlying EBIT of A$1.1 billion, with its North American business forecast to perform around two-thirds better than in the previous half. The company said conditions across the US steel industry and its key North American end markets remained favourable. Audi’s proposed Georgia factory could eventually produce 200,000 SUVs annually and shift production of some large SUV models from Bratislava. Production is not scheduled to begin until the early 2030s, and final board approval is still required. FOREX The euro strengthened about 0.2% to around $1.122 after France avoided a credit downgrade, providing modest relief for European markets. Sterling rose to about $1.339, while the dollar index slipped to 101.64 as lower US Treasury yields weighed on the US currency. A firmer euro slightly lowers the local cost of dollar-priced metals for European buyers. Currency trading may remain restrained before this week’s central bank meetings, with guidance from the ECB and Federal Reserve likely to matter more than their expected decisions to leave rates unchanged. WATCH TODAY Germany’s October Ifo business survey is due Monday and may offer a fresh reading on conditions in Europe’s largest industrial economy. A weak result could pressure the euro and reinforce concerns about metals demand from German manufacturers.