Daily Metals

THIS MORNING The supplied trade indications show a mixed picture against Tuesday’s official closes, with four metals higher, one virtually unchanged and one lower. Tin has the largest positive gap at 3.1%, followed by zinc at 2.1%, aluminium at 1.7% and copper at 0.8%; nickel is effectively flat, while lead is 2.1% lower. As the trade indications are from October 9, these gaps are not early-Wednesday price moves and should be treated only as reference levels. MACRO & GEOPOLITICS European markets are set for a firmer opening after gains in Asia and on Wall Street, although high energy costs and French political risk remain important concerns. Brent crude rose above $110 a barrel as Middle East tensions, attacks on Saudi infrastructure and Red Sea shipping risks heightened supply fears. French bond-market pressure also persisted ahead of further protests planned for Saturday. In the United States, markets largely expect the Federal Reserve to leave rates unchanged at its October 27–28 meeting, followed by an increase in December. Bank of England policymaker Megan Greene said the energy shock posed greater risks to broader inflation than previously expected and reiterated her support for higher rates. BASE METALS Copper was steady near $14,440 a tonne early Wednesday, while record offers for 2027 European deliveries pointed to tight physical supply outside the United States. Codelco quoted a $350-a-tonne premium and Aurubis $347, both on top of LME prices, as tariff uncertainty continues to pull metal into American warehouses. Grupo Mexico cut its 2026 copper-production forecast by 6,000 tonnes after quarterly output fell 1.9%. Nickel led the morning gains, rising 1.8%, while aluminium and tin added about 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively. Zinc and lead were narrowly higher. A weaker dollar offered broader support to dollar-denominated metals. PRECIOUS METALS Gold slipped 0.2% to about $4,118 an ounce, extending its decline to a fourth session. Rising oil prices are increasing inflation concerns and supporting expectations that interest rates will remain high, reducing gold’s appeal despite continued geopolitical tension. Silver fell 0.9% to $57.44, platinum lost 0.6% to $1,638.61 and palladium dropped 1.1% to $1,090.84. The Federal Reserve’s October 27–28 meeting and next week’s US inflation data remain the main near-term focus. STEEL Canada said it could force Cleveland-Cliffs to sell an Ontario steel plant that the company intends to partially idle. Ottawa says the plan violates employment commitments made when Cleveland-Cliffs acquired the Stelco plant, a claim the company disputes. In Europe, three mainstream groups in the European Parliament reached a preliminary agreement on weaker proposed 2035 car-emissions targets that would allow manufacturers to receive credit for using low-carbon steel produced in the EU. The agreement still requires approval from the political groups, followed by negotiations between the Parliament and EU governments. If adopted, it could support demand for cleaner European steel, although the weaker overall emissions target may reduce pressure for rapid changes in vehicle production. RARE EARTH METALS Phoenix Tailings plans to build a $375 million rare-earth processing facility in Rochester, New York, as the United States expands domestic capacity and seeks to reduce reliance on China. Some operations are expected to begin in 2027, with full production targeted for 2028. The plant is designed to process around 18,000 tonnes of material annually. The project reflects continued Western investment in alternative supply chains for strategic minerals used in electric vehicles, electronics and defence equipment. FOREX The euro held around $1.123 after recovering modestly on Tuesday, although unrest and rising government borrowing costs in France continued to limit confidence in European assets. The dollar remained under pressure after recent losses, helping dollar-priced base metals by lowering their cost for buyers using euros and other currencies. The yen weakened slightly to around 158.33 per dollar after Japanese exports rose 16.7% year on year in September but missed expectations. Currency markets remain sensitive to high oil prices and expectations of further rate increases in the United States, United Kingdom and Japan. WATCH TODAY UK inflation figures are due this morning and could influence expectations for a Bank of England rate increase in November, with implications for sterling and UK metal buyers. Bank Indonesia will also announce its interest-rate decision as it tries to stabilise the rupiah. Later, earnings from SAP, Meta and Tesla may affect wider risk appetite and expectations for technology-related metals demand.