Metals daily

This Morning Lead led the early-morning gains, trading about 1.0% above Wednesday’s official close at $1,855 a tonne. Nickel and tin were each up about 0.5%, at $15,810 and $54,025, while copper gained 0.2% to $14,440. Aluminium was the weakest metal, falling about 0.5% to $3,145, and zinc slipped about 0.1% to $3,827.50. Macro & Geopolitics Softer US inflation reduced the probability of another Federal Reserve rate rise in October, but elevated longer-term borrowing costs remain a concern for metals demand. The US 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.306%, its highest level since June 2007, helping keep the dollar near a two-month high. European markets also face pressure from faster inflation in major eurozone economies and elevated energy costs. Brent crude traded near $98 a barrel after rising sharply in September. Uncertainty over US-Iran peace efforts leaves the outlook for Gulf shipping and energy supplies an important risk for manufacturers. Base Metals Aluminium touched its lowest level in more than two months as traders considered whether progress in US-Iran talks could improve Middle Eastern supply flows. Continued operation of Rio Tinto’s Bell Bay smelter through 2031 also provides longer-term certainty for the facility, which produces about 190,000 tonnes of aluminium a year. Copper was supported by falling exchange stocks and strike risk at Escondida, where supervisors rejected BHP’s contract offer. Panama may also negotiate a restart of Cobre Panama to help fund the mine’s eventual closure, although the timing, legal structure and production outlook remain unclear. Lead, nickel and tin rose in early trading, while zinc edged lower. China’s Shanghai Futures Exchange is closed for the National Day holiday and will reopen on October 8, limiting trading activity and price signals from Asia. Precious Metals Gold rose 0.5% to about $4,175 an ounce after weaker US inflation lowered expectations of an October interest-rate increase. High bond yields and a firm dollar limited the advance, however, after gold lost more than 6% in September. Silver gained 1.2% to $61.11, platinum rose 0.7% to $1,717.35 and palladium added 0.3% to $1,207.12. Attention is now turning to Friday’s US employment report for the next signal on interest rates. Steel An OECD-backed steel forum agreed on a framework encouraging additional tariffs and trade investigations against imports linked to excess production capacity. Members also pledged to avoid subsidies that keep loss-making mills running or support uneconomic new plants. Global surplus capacity is forecast to reach 745 million tonnes, up from 601 million tonnes in 2025. The measures could provide more protection for domestic steel producers, but they also raise the risk of wider trade barriers and further market distortions. Rare Earth Metals Lynas Rare Earths agreed to buy Meteoric Resources for A$968 million, giving the world’s largest rare-earths producer outside China access to the Caldeira project in Brazil. The deal carries a premium of more than 68% and could support Western efforts to build alternative rare-earths supplies, including heavy rare earths. Lynas may add downstream processing capacity in Brazil, while development spending is expected to exceed $500 million. Investors nevertheless questioned the cost and the technical challenge of processing Caldeira’s ionic-clay ore. Forex The euro traded around $1.1334 after losing 2.5% during September, leaving dollar-priced metals more expensive for many European buyers. The dollar remained close to a two-month high as elevated US Treasury yields outweighed the effect of softer inflation figures. The yen weakened to around 157.95 per dollar, despite signs that some Bank of Japan policymakers favour faster rate increases. Watch Today September manufacturing surveys are due from France, Germany, the eurozone and the UK, followed by the eurozone unemployment rate. US weekly jobless claims and the ISM manufacturing survey arrive later and could move the dollar, bond yields and metals. Chinese mainland and Hong Kong markets remain closed for the National Day holiday.