Metals Daily

This Morning At the start of Thursday’s business day, the supplied reference price for tin stands 4.3% above Wednesday’s official close, the largest positive gap. Lead shows the largest negative gap, at 2.6% below Wednesday’s close, followed by zinc at 1.5% lower and aluminium at 0.6% lower. Copper is 0.4% higher and nickel is up 0.3%. Macro & Geopolitics European metals markets enter Thursday with interest rates and energy costs still setting the tone. The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate in a 3.75%-4.00% range, although two officials favoured an increase, leaving markets positioned for a possible December hike. The European Central Bank is expected to hold rates on Thursday, but its comments on inflation and bond-market stress in France could move the euro. Brent crude retreated below $114 a barrel as investors considered the possibility of renewed Middle East peace talks, although energy remains expensive for European industry. Mixed results from Alphabet and Microsoft also raised questions about whether heavy AI infrastructure spending can continue at its current pace. Base Metals Copper eased 0.3% in early LME trading but remained near a two-week high. Physical supply in China is tight: the Yangshan import premium reached $205 a tonne, its highest level in more than a decade, while stocks monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by more than 26% last week. These conditions should limit copper’s downside, although expectations of another US rate increase are weighing on demand. Among other LME metals, nickel gained 0.7% and tin advanced about 1%, while lead rose 0.2%. Aluminium slipped 0.2% and zinc was nearly flat. Zinc remains vulnerable to sharp price moves after available LME stocks fell 14% from the previous week and the premium for cash metal rose to $106 a tonne from $45. Precious Metals Gold fell about 0.7% to around $4,038 an ounce as traders prepared for US inflation data and assessed the possibility of another Federal Reserve rate increase. Silver and platinum each dropped 1.5%, to $53.15 and $1,515.70 respectively, while palladium fell 0.6% to $1,004.25. Higher interest rates remain a drag because precious metals do not pay interest, although geopolitical uncertainty and stronger Chinese gold imports continue to offer support. Steel Vietnamese steelmaker Hoa Phat reported a 106% year-on-year rise in third-quarter net profit. In Europe, Thyssenkrupp’s materials distributor tk accelis had a muted Frankfurt debut, with an equity value of about €1.7 billion. Ford also raised its expected 2026 commodity-cost burden to nearly $2.5 billion, citing steel and copper among the pressures on manufacturing margins. Rare Earth Metals Lynas Rare Earths reported a 55% increase in quarterly revenue as its average selling price rose 88% to a record A$102.1 per kilogram. Floor-price contracts cover more than half of the company’s output, helping support realised prices despite lower sales volumes. Planned maintenance will shut the Malaysian plant for about a month during the December quarter, while the Kalgoorlie operation faces a separate two-week stoppage in the second quarter of fiscal 2027, creating a near-term constraint on production. Forex The dollar was steady against major currencies at around 102.23 after a modest decline overnight. For European buyers of dollar-denominated metals, currency movements remain an important influence on local costs. Direction will depend heavily on the ECB’s message and US inflation data: a tougher ECB tone could support the euro, while stronger US price or growth figures would favour the dollar and add pressure to dollar-priced metals. Watch Today US third-quarter GDP, September personal spending and September PCE inflation data are due at 12:30 GMT. The ECB’s refinancing and deposit-rate decisions are scheduled for 13:15 GMT, with euro-area consumer and business-confidence data due earlier in the morning. Corporate earnings include Amazon, Intel, Caterpillar, Bristol Myers Squibb, Eli Lilly, Merck and Starbucks.