Daily Metals

This Morning Base metals open Tuesday with a constructive bias against Monday's official LME closes. Nickel leads the gains, with trade at 16,400 versus Monday's close of 16,115.92 (+1.8%), recovering after Monday's 2%+ slide. Copper is firmer at 13,220 (-0.2% vs 13,252.81) as traders await the U.S. tariff review verdict. Tin trades at 50,300 (+0.6%), aluminium at 3,090 (+0.2%) hovering just above four-month lows, while zinc (3,482, +0.2%) and lead (1,865, +0.3%) post modest gains. Quarter-end positioning and Wednesday's Warsh speech are keeping flows cautious. Macro & Geopolitics The quarter closes with a remarkable re-pricing of Fed expectations: futures now lean toward hikes rather than cuts, with markets pricing roughly a 64% chance of a September move. The dollar index is heading for its biggest monthly gain in nearly a year, the yen has plumbed a 40-year low at 162.41, and gold is on track for its worst monthly drop since 2008. The U.S.-Iran ceasefire is fragile but holding, with talks resuming in Doha; Brent has slipped back to pre-war levels near $72.50. China's June official manufacturing PMI returned to expansion at 50.3, beating forecasts. European focus today turns to German, French and Italian flash CPI prints and ECB chief economist Schnabel's appearance in Sintra, where soft inflation readings could reinforce the case for an extended ECB pause. Base Metals Copper drifted in Asian hours, with LME three-month at $13,327.50, as traders held back ahead of Commerce Secretary Lutnick's update to President Trump on the refined copper market and domestic refining capacity — a precursor to potential Section 232 tariffs. COMEX stocks have climbed 3.73% in June to a peak of 664,030 short tons, evidence that pre-tariff shipments are still tightening ex-U.S. availability. Aluminium remains the structural story: a Reuters analysis confirms Ferrari, BMW and Stellantis are accelerating the copper-to-aluminium switch in wiring, with JPMorgan flagging up to 6% of copper demand at risk of substitution by 2030. LME aluminium is testing its 200-day moving average around $3,160 after a 16% drop from June's highs as Middle East supply fears recede. Nickel's bounce looks technical after Monday's 2.2% slide; zinc, lead and tin are range-bound pending China PMI follow-through. Precious Metals Gold is set for its biggest monthly drop since October 2008, shedding roughly 12.7% in June to trade near $3,957/oz, with spot down a further 1.5% Tuesday. The hawkish Fed repricing, a firm dollar and easing Middle East risk premium have overridden traditional safe-haven flows. Silver is tracking its sharpest monthly loss since September 2011 at $57.13; platinum is on course for its worst month since 2008 at $1,557; palladium hovers around $1,208. Marex sees a $3,500–$4,400 trading range for gold in H2. Bulls need lower real yields, a softer dollar or a dovish Fed shift to reignite — none look imminent ahead of Thursday's U.S. payrolls. Steel European mills and scrap traders are counting down to tomorrow's expiry of the EU's 2018 safeguard regime. From 1 July, the replacement framework slashes tariff-free import quotas by roughly 47% to 18.3 million tonnes per year and lifts the out-of-quota duty to 50% from 25%. Combined with CBAM, analysts expect the measures to remove a meaningful chunk of low-cost third-country supply and lend support to domestic HRC prices into H2. Scrap markets in Europe should benefit indirectly as EAF-route mills capture share, though downstream users face higher input costs. The UK is mirroring the EU framework from 1 July. Rare Earth Metals EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic, after Monday's Brussels meeting with Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao, welcomed Beijing's reassurance that existing export controls on rare earths and permanent magnets will not disrupt EU supply chains. Both sides agreed to set up a joint monitoring mechanism for trade flows, with Sefcovic targeting tangible deliverables by October when he travels to Beijing. The EU's trade deficit with China hit €360.6 billion in 2025 and has expanded a further 10% in the first four months of 2026, keeping pressure on the dialogue. Separately, Arafura Rare Earths signed a binding term sheet for 500 tpa of NdPr oxide over five years with an Indian industrial group. Forex The euro has clawed back above $1.14 this past week but remains capped by the broader dollar strength story, with the DXY up 1.3% on the quarter and eyeing its biggest monthly gain in nearly a year. The widening Fed-ECB policy gap — markets pricing Fed hikes while expecting the ECB to stay on hold — is the dominant driver. Today's flash CPI prints from Germany, France and Italy will set the tone: softer-than-expected readings would reinforce euro headwinds and pressure euro-denominated metal pricing. The yen at 162.41 keeps Tokyo intervention risk elevated, a tail risk for cross-asset volatility. Watch Today German, French and Italian flash CPI for June through the morning, followed by U.S. JOLTS job openings and Consumer Confidence in the afternoon. ECB's Isabel Schnabel speaks at Sintra. Commerce Secretary Lutnick is expected to brief President Trump on the refined copper market review — any tariff signal will move LME-COMEX arbitrage immediately. Metal Radar 26.06.26