Selloff abates as economy hums, layoffs rise

Signs that U.S. economic activity remains brisk helped steady the stocks ship, but this also cast more doubt on why the Federal Reserve needs to ease again next month and that has pushed Treasury yields higher. The week's latest tech wobble calmed on Wednesday as service sector surveys impressed, although valuation concerns smoldered. Chip designer Qualcomm's stock fell back 4% overnight despite headline earnings beats as it warned on loss of business from client Samsung. But a rare trickle of macro data during what's now a record long government shutdown was the focus on Wednesday. Private sector jobs rose above forecast last month, service firms reported rising activity and prices and quarterly Fed lending data showed relatively stable household credit conditions.

With futures showing little more than a 60% chance of another Fed cut next month, Treasuries balked and the long-dated yields hit their highest in almost a month. A string of the Fed's heavy hitters are speaking again later on Thursday. However, doves will point to rising layoffs as a reason to keep cutting rates and a report on Thursday from Challenger, Gray & Christmas said U.S.-based employers cut more than 150,000 jobs in October, marking the biggest reduction for the month in more than 20 years.

The overall picture left Wall Street stock index futures flat ahead of today's bell despite Wednesday's modest bounce. The dollar fell back across the major currency pairs, while gold nudged higher and Bitcoin retreated again. Britain's pound perked up after a rough week ahead of a likely knife-edge policy decision from the Bank of England later. Markets see 40% chance of a UK rate cut as soon as Thursday as this month's critical government budget plan is expected to tighten fiscal policy.

Elsewhere, Asia stocks firmed and China's markets outperformed again. European stocks slipped. Wednesday's Supreme Court hearings raised doubts over the legality of President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs, with betting markets seeing just a one-on-four chance that they will give the use of emergency powers clearance. That potentially creates a hiatus in the plan as Trump would then need to seek other routes to impose the tariffs.

While the Supreme Court typically takes months to issue rulings after hearing arguments, the administration asked it to act swiftly. The timing of a decision remains unclear. Pressure to end the record 36-day government shutdown was building meantime, with Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy saying he would order a 10% cut in flights at 40 major U.S. airports, citing air traffic control safety concerns. In today's column, I take a look at tech sector bubble jitters and how long-term success of the AI transformation may be independent of whether current frothy valuations are justified.

Today's Market Minute

* U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said on Wednesday that he would order a 10% cut in flights at 40 major U.S. airports, citing air traffic control safety concerns as a government shutdown hit a record 36th day.

* The U.S. Supreme Court's tough questioning of President Donald Trump's global tariffs fueled increased speculation that they will be struck down, but raised the specter of additional chaos as he is widely expected to shift to other trade tactics in the wake of an adverse ruling.

* Tesla's (TSLA.O) board of directors has pushed in all its chips on Elon Musk. Now investors must decide whether to back the biggest bet in company history. Shareholders will vote Thursday on whether to pay Musk up to $878 billion in company stock or take the risk he will leave.

* Gold's recent retreat from a record high has raised questions about whether the precious metal has run out of steam. But ROI Asia commodities columnist Clyde Russell notes that this might not be the case, as the current rally is only the third-strongest in terms of percentage gain in the past 50 years.

* Fund money has surged into the London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium contract over the past couple of months as investors bet that the market's days of chronic oversupply are coming to an end, writes ROI metals columnist Andy Home.

Chart of the day Thursday's Bank of England rate decision remains a close call with markets split on whether the BoE will pull the trigger today or wait until after the government's annual budget plan on November 26. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves flagged likely tax rises this week as she struggles to keep the budget within her own fiscal rules, where room for maneuver is more limited than many of her predecessors.

Today's events to watch

* Bank of England policy decision, minutes, monetary policy report and press conference with BoE Governor Andrew Bailey

* Federal Reserve Board Governors Christopher Waller and Michael Barr both speak; New York Fed President John Williams, Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson, Cleveland Fed boss Beth Hammack and St. Louis Fed chief Alberto Musalem all speak; Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks in parliament

* U.S. corporate earnings: Microchip Technology, News Corp, Warner Bros Discovery, Moderna, Dupont De Nemours, Kenvue, Expedia, Airbnb, Wynn Resorts, ConocoPhillips, Consolidated Edison, Ralph Lauren, Monster Beverage, Parker-Hannifin, Mettler-Toledo, Trade Desk, Vistra, Insulet, Tapestry, Alliant Energy, NRG, Evergy, Akamai, Gen Digital, Rockwell Automation, Block, Viatris, EOG Resources, Camden Property, Take-Two Interactive, Epam, Solventum