Theme of the Day: Global Copper Market in 300kt Surplus in H12025

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) released preliminary data for Jun world copper supply and demand in its Aug 2025 Copper Bulletin. For Hi2025, the world refined copper balance, based on Chinese apparent usage (excluding changes in bonded/unreported stocks), indicated a surplus of ~251kt. Adjusted for estimated changes in Chinese bonded stocks suggested a market surplus of ~300kt.

World copper mine production increased by about 2.7%, with concentrate production increasing by 2.8% and solvent extraction-electrowinning (SX-EW) by 2.3%. Global mine production is benefiting from additional output from new mine projects starting or ramping up to capacity. In Peru, copper mine production increased by 3.6% YoY mainly due to higher output at Las Bambas, Quellaveco and Toromocho. Output in the DRC grew by about 9.5% mainly as a consequence of the expansion of the Kamoa mine (concentrates) and the TFM/KFM mines (SX-EW). Output in Chile saw growth of 2.6%. This was due to higher output at the Escondida, Centinela, Mantos Copper and Codelco mines that more than offset reductions at Collahuasi, Los Pelambres and a number of other mines. Indonesian output declined by 36%, due to lower output at Grasberg primarily reflecting a planned major maintenance project and lower production at Batu Hijau due to mine sequencing. In Mongolia, copper concentrate production grew by 31% (Oyu Tolgoi UG project ramp-up).

World refined copper production increased by about 3.6% with primary production (electrolytic and electrowinning from ores) up by 3.6% and secondary production (from scrap) up by 3.7%. Production in China and the DRC, that currently represent about 56% of the world's total production, is estimated to have increased by about 6.2%. Output in Asia (ex-China) is assessed to have increased by about 2.3%, mainly due to higher production in India. In Indonesia, the Amman refinery produced its first cathode in late Mar, however, the Manyar refinery started production in Jul. Production in Japan declined by 8.8%, due to a smelter maintenance shutdown. Overall Chilean refined copper production declined by 8.4%: electrolytic production was down by 10.4%, impacted by a smelter maintenance shutdown and SX-EW output declined by 7.3%. Global secondary refined production was up by 2.7% mainly due to growth in China.

World apparent refined copper usage grew by about 4.8%. Chinese apparent demand (excluding changes in bonded/unreported stocks) is estimated to have grown by around 7.5%. Chinese net refined copper imports declined by 2.6% (refined copper imports declined by 1.9% and copper exports increased by 2%). China’s share of total word refined copper usage is currently about 58%. World ex-China usage grew by 1% with growth in a number of Asian and MENA countries, largely offset by weak demand in the EU, Japan and the US.

As of the end of Jul 2025, copper stocks held at the major metal exchanges (LME, COMEX, SHFE) totalled 450,752t, an increase of 20,524t (+4.8%) from stocks held at the end of Dec 2024. Stocks were down at the LME (-129,600t) and SHFE (-0.749t) and up at COMEX (+150,873t).