Theme of the Day: PGM five-year supply/demand outlook - WPIC

With the 2026f market forecast now included in our Platinum Quarterly, The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) extend its forecast period to 2030f. WPIC expect platinum market deficits to average 348koz from 2027f to 2030f, which equates to ~4% of demand and less than the ~8% previously forecast. The narrower deficits stem from platinum’s upward price momentum (2025: +127%) supporting supply and eroding some demand at the margins. Although WPIC forecast a broadly balanced platinum market in 2026f, this is insufficient to rebuild depleted above ground stocks, and we expect market tension to persist with ongoing elevated lease rates and strong OTC backwardation. We continue to expect palladium to trend towards a surplus, supported by growing recycling supply. For platinum, WPIC expect market deficits to average 348koz from 2027f to 2030f (551koz previously). In summary,

• Total supply has increased by 1.3% on average, with upward revisions to mining and recycling supply.
• Total demand is forecast to be -1.9% lower on average than previously estimated, primarily driven by a reduction in jewellery demand.

For palladium, WPIC now expect markets to be in a surplus from 2026f.

• Total supply has been increased by an average of 2.0% on the same basis as platinum supply upgrades, albeit with more emphasis on recycling.
• Total demand has been decreased by -0.2% on average. Palladium’s milder demand revision results from less exposure to jewellery markets, with demand elasticity being lower in automotive and industrial applications.

Precious metals (including platinum) will continue to serve as defensive assets in 2026 since external shocks are continuing to occur, with the US’s actions in Venezuela and demands over Greenland being the latest. However, platinum’s price increase, as well as the other PGMs,’ will have some bearing on the longer-term supply demand outlook. We forecast that total platinum supply will increase by a 0.9% CAGR from 2025e to 2030f, underpinned by higher recycling. Mine supply is better described as likely to record less erosion since there are structural limitations to “how much” and “how quickly” miners can respond to prices. Platinum demand will be constrained, declining by a -0.7% CAGR from 2025e to 2030f. Higher prices should impact platinum jewellery demand and promote palladium for platinum automotive substitution. Although WPIC forecast a broadly balanced platinum market in 2026f, this is insufficient to rebuild depleted above ground stocks, and WPIC expect market tension to persist with ongoing elevated lease rates and strong OTC backwardation. WPIC continue to expect palladium to trend towards a surplus, supported by growing recycling supply. The platinum investment case is compelling. After three-years of consecutive market deficits above ground stocks have declined by 49% since the end of 2022. These robust supply demand fundamentals combined with external macroeconomic factors propelled platinum’s price performance in 2025 (+127%).