Theme of the day: Solid upturn in global manufacturing continues

Solid upturn in global manufacturing continues, but input price inflation accelerates amid shortages Key findings: Global Manufacturing PMI at 52.6 in Oct (2-month low). Output and new order growth ease from Sep highs. Input cost inflation gathers pace. The start of the final quarter of 2026 saw a further solid expansion of the global manufacturing sector. Rates of growth in output and new orders remained above their respective long-run averages in Oct, despite easing slightly from Sep highs. The less positive news was on the price and supply fronts, as input cost inflation accelerated amid reports of material shortages and vendor delivery delays. The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI – posted 52.6 in Oct, down slightly from 53.0 in Sep, remaining above its neutral 50.0 mark for the fifteenth consecutive month. All five PMI sub-components (new orders, output, employment, suppliers' delivery times and stocks of purchases) were at levels usually consistent with improved operating conditions. Manufacturing production rose again in Oct, extending the current growth sequence to 15 months. The upturn remained broad-based by sub-sector, with expansions signalled across the consumer, intermediate and investment goods industries. The fastest rate of increase was in the intermediate goods category and the weakest at consumer goods producers. Underlying the latest overall rise in output were further increases in both total new orders and new export business, with the latter expanding for the third month in a row. Oct data provided further evidence of rising backlogs of work at factories, as the volume of work-in-hand (but not yet completed) increased for the ninth month in a row. Manufacturers reported that growth in outstanding business reflected a combination of improved sales, supply chain delays and capacity constraints. Efforts to restrict backlog growth led to a slight decrease in stocks of finished goods.   Employment rose for the fourth straight month in Oct, increasing across the consumer, intermediate and investment goods sectors. Regional PMI data signalled job creation in the US, Japan, mainland China and the eurozone (among others), although rates of growth were only slight in the latter two. Oct PMI data signalled that price inflationary pressures continued to gather pace, as rates of increase in input costs and selling prices both accelerated. Input costs rose at the quickest pace since Jun, amid reports that supply chain delays and subsequent material shortages were driving prices higher. Average vendor lead times lengthened for the twenty ninth consecutive month, with the rate of increase one of the steepest registered during that sequence.