Daily metals

This Morning LME base metals are showing mixed performance in early trading. Nickel leads the complex with a 0.9% gain, while zinc follows at 0.7% higher. Aluminium and lead post modest advances of 0.3% and 0.4% respectively. Copper and tin buck the trend, both trading slightly lower at -0.2% and -0.3%. The divergence reflects ongoing tension between speculative positioning and physical demand, with nickel's relative strength standing out despite concerns over structural oversupply. Analysts temper copper and aluminium exuberance A fresh Reuters poll of commodity strategists shows that although copper, tin and aluminium were top-performers on forecasts for early 2026, expectations are now being dialed back. Strong demand drivers like electrification and infrastructure still matter, but speculative price spikes from early January are increasingly seen as unsustainable in the near term — particularly for nickel, lead and zinc, where oversupply or weaker structural demand may cap gains. Market implications: Copper and aluminium retain bullish narratives, but risk of consolidation or correction is rising if sentiment dries up. Nickel and lead may struggle due to shifting battery chemistry needs and declining lead demand. Chinese spot prices signal renewed strength Latest Shanghai Metals Market data shows sharp gains in SMM copper and aluminium spot prices, with copper up significantly on the day — reflecting active Chinese physical trading as speculators and domestic consumers engage. This divergence between fundamentals and speculative positioning remains a core theme, with base metal markets caught between real demand growth and short-term sentiment swings. Precious Metals: Volatility and Safe-Haven Flows After last week's historic sell-off, precious metals are staging technical rebounds. Gold rose sharply — in some sessions near its biggest gain since 2008 — as dip-buyers and safe-haven flows returned, supported by expectations of looser monetary policy and a softer U.S. dollar. Silver also climbed materially, pointing to renewed interest from both bullion and industrial metal investors. These moves reflect positioning adjustments rather than fresh demand shocks, but they feed back into base metal psychology via cross-asset correlations. FX dynamics remain significant The U.S. dollar — historically a large anchor on dollar-priced metals — has been softening, reducing one competitive headwind for commodities. This shift correlates with the rebound in gold and silver. Meanwhile, regional FX movements (yen weakness, euro stabilization) add layers of demand/supply effects for metal exporters and importers globally. A softer USD tends to support higher nominal metal prices. FX swings can reframe import cost curves for metal consumers in Europe and Asia, feeding into ordering behavior. Supply and Demand Backdrop While not fresh today, underlying fundamentals matter: long-term forecasts still point to structural deficits in copper and chronic supply constraints, despite short-term volatility. Chinese arbitrage dynamics and building inventories continue to play into price gyrations. These structural threads mean that even if today's headlines are sentiment-driven, the backdrop supports higher base metal price floors over time. Rare Earths and Adjacent Considerations Direct rare earth headlines today were thin, but robotics and EV production news (Tesla humanoid robot advances) were flagged in base metal analysis feeds as potential signal events for demand shifts in specialty metals, including rare earths used in motors and advanced electronics. Renewed investment in next-generation manufacturing technologies can subtly lift demand expectations across transition metals. Key Price Signals Aluminium and zinc are showing modest gains this session, while nickel outperforms with notable strength. Copper and tin are trading slightly softer, suggesting mixed sentiment across the complex. What Traders and Strategists Are Watching Speculative positioning versus industrial demand — will record rallies bleed into real orders? USD direction — continued dollar softness could lift metals broadly. China physical flows and import arbitrage — a key driver of price volatility. Monetary policy signals — rate expectations feed both base and precious metals with different timings.