Daily metals

Global equities staged a broad based snapback after a bruising tech led sell-off earlier in the week, with dip buying returning as fears around near term AI disruption and forced deleveraging eased. Precious metals were hit with a fresh wave of selling, which weighed on sentiment across the metals complex. Oil fell amid easing geopolitical tensions. Yields on 10-year US Treasuries were steady at 4.21%, while the USD index was 0.7% stronger at 97.6. Week Ahead: Data delays from the partial US government shutdown resulted in both the US jobs report and CPI being released next week, set to impact both sides of the Fed’s dual mandate. Retail sales and employment costs data will also be featured. In a sign that the US remains driven in its desire to shore up supply chains of critical minerals, the White House announced plans to take a stake in Glencore’s Congolese copper operations. This comes after the Trump administration hosted a critical minerals summit with 55 countries to reduce dependence on China and ensure stable access to key resources. The US pitched the use of price floors and a flood of US private equity investment, according to statements from the US Trade Representative’s office. Precious metals lost ground last week, although gold and palladium gained on the week. Silver fell sharply, wiping out its two-day recovery, as a fresh wave of selling hit the market. After building up large positions in Jan, the market remains dominated by speculative and CTA positioning. This is despite ongoing structural tightness in the physical market. This volatility is likely to remain high until these positions have been unwound. The sell-off in the gold market was a little bit more contained due to greater liquidity and less aggressive positioning by investors. In Jan, gold ETFs attracted $19bn – the strongest month on record. Jan’s net buying, combined with a 14% surge in the gold price, pushed global gold ETF AUM to a new record of $669bn (+20% m/m). Collective global holdings rose by 120t to 4,145t, also a record new all‑time high. Base metals struggled to hold gains from earlier in the week as signs of weaker demand in China weighed on sentiment. Sentiment reacted to reports of easing in Chinese buying, with fabricators and manufacturers said to lack the appetite to chase the market higher. Ahead of the Lunar New Year demand lull, exchange-monitored copper inventory stocks continue to surge higher, up 32.1kt to a fresh multi-year high at 964kt. All three exchanges seeing stockpiles build, led by SHFE (+15.9kt), LME (+8.3kt), and Comex (7.9kt). The State Grid Corp of China announced a 35% jump in fixed asset investment to CNY30.8bn in Jan on ultra-high voltage grids and pumped storage power stations. Supply side issues also remain a concern. Anglo American cut its outlook for copper output from its operations to between 700-760kt in 2026, from the previously forecast range of 760-820kt. Iron ore prices are threatening to break below $100/t for the first time since Nov 2025, amid the broader sell-off across the industrial metal sector. Stockpiles at Chinese ports have been building in recent weeks, as the industry enters the seasonal shutdown period over the LNY. Iron ore shipments from Australia, including Port Hedland totalled 9.3Mt in the week to 23 Jan, up from 8Mt in the previous week.