Daily metals

LME base metals are trading in early Friday session with mixed signals. Copper is at $12,750, down 0.8% from Thursday's official close of $12,857.44, continuing its slide under pressure from rising exchange inventories. Aluminium trades at $3,298, marginally above its close of $3,293.14 (+0.2%), holding onto war-driven supply premium. Nickel at $17,110 is up 0.5% from its $17,017.09 close. The biggest mover is tin, which trades at $48,975, down 1.7% from Thursday's close of $49,828, while lead ($1,904.50, +0.4%) and zinc ($3,210, +0.3%) show modest gains.

The Middle East conflict dominates all markets as the U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran enters its sixth day. Oil prices have surged more than 15% this week — the largest weekly gain since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 — with Brent crude around $83/bbl. Around 300 oil tankers remain stuck in the Strait of Hormuz, choking off roughly a fifth of global oil and LNG supplies. The inflation shock is reshaping rate expectations across Europe: the ECB is now seen hiking rates by year-end, while Bank of England cut odds have collapsed to 23% from near-certainty a week ago. U.S. Treasury yields have jumped 18 basis points this week. U.S. nonfarm payrolls data due today will be closely watched for signs of labour market deterioration, with consensus at just 59,000 jobs added in February. German industrial orders and production data for January are also due this morning.

Aluminium remains the standout, on track for a weekly gain exceeding 5% on the LME after force majeures at Norsk Hydro's Qatalum and Aluminium Bahrain disrupted output from a region producing 8% of global supply. Citi has raised its aluminium price target to $3,600, with a bull-case scenario of $4,000. LME aluminium inventories have fallen to their lowest since July last year at 459,125 tons, with a 45,000-ton cancellation order from Port Klang this week signalling traders cashing in on tightness. Copper, by contrast, is under pressure: LME warehouse stocks surged past 282,000 tons — the highest since October 2024 — with a 20,000-ton inflow into U.S. warehouses alone as the LME-Comex premium structure normalises and metal flows back into global exchange stocks. The stronger dollar is capping gains across the complex.

Gold rebounded 1% to around $5,128 in Asian trading on Friday, recovering from Thursday's 1.2% drop, as safe-haven demand returned. However, the metal is set for a roughly 3% weekly loss — snapping a four-week winning streak — as rising yields and a surging dollar have outweighed geopolitical support. OANDA's Kelvin Wong flagged key support at $5,040 and resistance at $5,280, with potential for a move to $5,448 if resistance breaks. CME Group cut initial margins on COMEX gold futures to 7% from 9%. Silver surged 3% to $84.64, while platinum and palladium also recovered.

European steel markets are tightening rapidly as the Iran conflict disrupts semi-finished steel flows. Tata Steel UK has hiked HRC prices by £125/t for Q2, with offers now around £620/t delivered West Midlands, citing rising slab and zinc costs. Slab availability has tightened sharply as Iranian exports have halted and European mills prefer importing semis over increasing production and purchasing additional emissions allowances. On the continent, a Spanish rebar and wire rod producer withdrew offers after hiking wire rod by at least €20/t. Meanwhile, U.S. fund Flacks Group declared it is ready to bid for Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe if ongoing talks with Jindal Steel International fail, adding a new dimension to the long-running TKSE saga.

USA Rare Earth announced it will acquire the remaining minority interest in the Round Top rare earth deposit in Texas for $73 million in an all-stock deal, consolidating sole ownership of what it claims is the largest known U.S. source of heavy rare earth elements. The Trump administration is backing a $1.6 billion funding package for the project. Separately, exploration budgets for rare earths reached $155 million in 2025 — the highest since 2012 — though 80% of capital is concentrated in just four countries: Australia, Brazil, the U.S. and Canada.

The dollar is pausing its rally on Friday but remains on track for a 1.4% weekly gain — its steepest in over a year — driven by safe-haven flows and hawkish rate repricing. The euro is set to fall 1.7% for the week, weighed down by Europe's acute vulnerability to the energy price spike. Sterling is headed for a near-1% weekly decline. Markets now price the ECB as more likely to hike than cut by year-end, a dramatic shift from the easing trajectory expected just days ago. The euro traded around $1.1612 in early Friday trade.

U.S. February nonfarm payrolls (13:30 GMT) are the key event, with consensus at 59,000 jobs — any sign of AI-related labour disruption could jolt markets. German industrial orders and manufacturing output for January land at 07:00 GMT. Revised Q4 eurozone GDP is due at 10:00 GMT. Multiple Fed speakers are scheduled, alongside ECB President Lagarde and board members Schnabel and Cipollone.