Daily metals

LME base metals are pulling back across the board this morning after Trump's prime-time address dashed hopes of a swift end to the Iran conflict. Tin is the sharpest decliner, with three-month prices at $46,325 — down 2.0% from Wednesday's close of $47,362. Copper has slipped 1.0% to $12,299 versus Wednesday's $12,435 close, snapping a four-session winning streak. Zinc shed 1.4% to $3,237, nickel lost 0.6% to $17,110, and aluminium eased 0.8% to $3,503. Lead is the most resilient of the complex, off just 0.5% at $1,928. Cash copper is trading at a $73 discount to three-month, while cash aluminium maintains a $69 premium, reflecting continued tightness in nearby supply.

President Trump's televised address late Wednesday reversed two days of cautious optimism. Rather than outlining a path to ceasefire, Trump vowed to strike Iran "extremely hard" over the next two to three weeks, offering no timeline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude surged back above $106, reigniting stagflation fears that battered markets throughout March. European futures point to an ugly open, down over 1.5%, and with most Western markets closed tomorrow for Good Friday, traders are likely to de-risk aggressively today. The dollar firmed, with the euro weakening to $1.156. Fed rate-cut expectations remain effectively zero through 2026, with St. Louis Fed President Musalem warning that even a swift end to the war would leave lingering inflation from damaged energy infrastructure. The IEA has warned that oil supply disruptions will intensify in April and begin hitting Europe's economy directly.

Copper's four-day rally has stalled as the conflict narrative flipped overnight. Analysts note copper has increasingly moved inversely to oil and in line with equities — a weaker growth backdrop driven by inflationary energy costs dampens demand expectations. Recent arrivals of imported copper at Chinese ports have weighed on spot premiums, adding to already elevated inventories. On the supply side, major Chinese smelters Jiangxi Copper and Yunnan Copper have raised 2026 production guidance despite CSPT pledges to cut output, suggesting the overcapacity problem persists. Aluminium remains the most geopolitically sensitive metal: Gulf producers account for roughly 9% of global supply, and reports that one major smelter has halted operations entirely while another runs at just 30% utilisation imply a meaningful 3 million tonne annualised supply loss. Shanghai tin futures fell over 3% as risk-off sentiment overwhelmed tight physical supply.

Gold reversed sharply after Trump's speech, falling over 2% to around $4,650 after touching a two-week high above $4,790 earlier in the session. The bellicose tone rekindled the pattern from March — rising oil fuelling inflation fears, strengthening the dollar, and crushing rate-cut expectations — all headwinds for non-yielding bullion. Gold dropped 11% in March, its worst month since 2008. Silver extended losses, falling 5% to $71.51, while platinum shed 1.8% to $1,928. Traders noted the pre-long-weekend dynamic could amplify selling as investors reduce exposure ahead of potential weekend escalation.

The Trump administration is preparing to overhaul its steel and aluminium tariff regime, according to the Wall Street Journal. The plan would maintain a 50% tariff on commodity-grade steel and aluminium while reducing the rate on finished products made with imported steel and aluminium to 25%. A presidential proclamation could come as soon as this week. European steelmakers and downstream users should watch closely — any restructuring of U.S. tariffs could redirect trade flows and affect pricing across the Atlantic.

REalloys and U.S. Critical Materials signed an MoU to build a fully domestic rare earth supply chain, with REalloys securing up to 10% offtake from the Sheep Creek deposit in Montana. The deposit is rich in heavy rare earths dysprosium and terbium, critical for defence applications. Separately, Environmental Group's TAPC unit won an A$9 million contract for the Longonjo rare earth refinery in Angola. These moves reflect the accelerating Western push to decouple rare earth supply from China.

The dollar regained strength overnight after Trump's hawkish Iran speech reversed two days of softening. The euro weakened 0.25% to $1.156, pulling back from near three-week highs. The dollar index rose 0.3% to 99.858. For European metals buyers, the firmer dollar adds cost pressure on dollar-denominated commodities. Markets have now priced out virtually all Fed rate cuts for 2026, with some pricing even implying modest tightening risk — a stark contrast to the brief flicker of rate-cut hopes that emerged mid-week as de-escalation seemed possible.

Trump's Iran speech aftermath will dominate sentiment, with traders likely to de-risk ahead of the Good Friday holiday. U.S. weekly jobless claims (12:30 GMT) and February trade data offer the main scheduled data points. With most European and U.S. markets closed tomorrow, today's session could see exaggerated moves as positions are squared before the long weekend.