Daily metals

Global equities fell as threats of escalation by the US and Iran prolonged concerns of lower oil exports from the Persian Gulf. Risk appetite boosted on hopes of end to Middle East conflict. Energy markets rose on signs of no end to the Middle East conflict. Improved risk appetite pushed industrial metals higher. Precious metals also gained on reduced bets on central bank hikes. Yields on 10-year US Treasuries were steady at 4.31%, while the USD index was 0.4% stronger at 100. Precious metals slumped as the USD and oil prices surged following President Donald Trump’s vow to intensify attacks on Iran. His remarks, confirming the US had "nearly accomplished" its military objectives but offering no end in sight to the month-long conflict, sparked inflation fears and reinforced expectations of higher interest rates. Gold has so far stalled ahead of $4,759, marking the 50% retracement of the Mar decline. More broadly, gold and other hard assets are showing early signs of stabilising after a deep correction. The market narrative appears to be shifting from an initial inflation shock toward a potential growth shock - one that could underpin demand for bonds and gold. Central banks bought a net 19t of gold in Feb, a rebound after a lull in Jan. Buying was led by Poland, with continued buying from others. Base metals fell from earlier highs as oil prices and the USD firmed. But broad support has emerged after economic data earlier this week showed China’s factory activity had improved, with the official manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index reaching 50.4 in Mar. Aluminium prices also extended recent gains as the hit to output from the Persian Gulf continues to rise concerns about future shortages. Copper remained above the $12,000 level on renewed demand signals from China and tightening supply, with Chile - the world’s largest producer - reporting its lowest monthly output in nearly nine years, highlighting structural challenges in meeting electrification-driven demand as ore grades decline and key mines underperform. Overall, we see the complex holding firm, with improving macro conditions supporting prices, while supply-side risks continue to underpin selected metals. Ivanhoe Mines said it aims to ramp up annual Kamoa-Kakula copper production to over 500kt from 2028 onwards, with revised guidance of 290–330kt in 2026 and 380–420kt in 2027. Feasibility study is in progress to optimize the mine plan, it added. Iron ore prices eased from the recent highs. China’s steel production fell to 160Mt in Jan-Feb, falling by 3.6% YoY, which dampened sentiment.