Daily metals

Copper is trading at $12,668 as of Friday 06:00, a 0.6% premium to Thursday's official cash close of $12,586, with the three-month contract at $12,743 versus Thursday's $12,682 close. Tin is the standout mover, up 0.7% with cash at $47,819 against Thursday's $47,501 close. Nickel has added 0.5% to $16,977, while aluminium is marginally firmer at 0.2%. Lead and zinc are essentially flat, each up just 0.1%. The complex is finding modest support overnight but gains remain capped by uncertainty over the durability of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire heading into weekend peace talks.

The fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire is under severe strain heading into Friday. Israel's bombardment of Lebanon killed more than 300 people on Wednesday, prompting Tehran to insist Lebanon must be part of any deal. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with traffic well below 10% of normal volumes as Iran demands tolls and pre-approval for vessels. Brent crude bounced back toward $97 on Thursday after briefly topping $102 intraday. U.S. PCE inflation for February came in at 2.8% year-on-year, in line with forecasts, while Q4 GDP was revised down to 0.5% versus 0.7% expected. Fed minutes revealed a growing number of policymakers leaning toward rate hikes to contain inflation, though many still favour eventual cuts. U.S. CPI for March, due today at 13:30 BST, is expected to show a sharp acceleration to 3.3%.

Copper slipped on Thursday as ceasefire doubts reinforced growth concerns, with LME three-month copper closing at $12,682 after touching a three-week high of $12,755.50 on Wednesday. Combined LME and Comex copper stocks above 900,000 tons — double the start-of-year level — continue to weigh, though Morgan Stanley argues U.S.-held metal now behaves "more like a strategic reserve" and is unlikely to be re-exported. Andy Home's analysis highlights a structural shift: China's net refined copper imports slumped to 125,350 tons in February — the lowest monthly tally since April 2011 — as rising domestic smelting capacity reduces import dependence. Aluminium trade flows are being reshaped as Rusal plans to reroute metal from China to Japan and South Korea, where premiums have surged to 11-year highs. European consumers face premiums approaching $600/ton above LME — the most since June 2022 — as Middle East supply disruptions persist.

Gold gained 1.6% on Thursday to $4,790, supported by a weaker dollar and persistent geopolitical uncertainty, and is on track for a third consecutive weekly gain. Morgan Stanley sees gold stable through Q2 before rebounding in H2, noting that if Fed hikes are avoided, gold could rally as focus returns to fiat currency debasement. Silver surged nearly 3% to $76.24 and platinum jumped 3.8% to $2,106. Markets await today's U.S. CPI release for further direction on the Fed's rate path, with bullion having shed roughly 10% since the Iran war began on February 28.

JSW Steel reported combined crude steel production of 30.14 million tonnes for FY26, representing 8% year-on-year growth, though Q4 consolidated production fell 3%. In Argentina, lawmakers passed a reform allowing mining in glacier regions, a move expected to generate $165 billion in exports by 2035 and position the country as a key copper and lithium supplier. Boliden disclosed that abnormal seismic activity at its Garpenberg mine in Sweden caused major damage in March, triggering a SEK 700 million asset write-down — a development worth monitoring for European zinc and lead concentrate supply.

USA Rare Earth is considering building a permanent magnet plant in southern France after agreeing to pay €40 million for a 12.5% stake in French rare earth processor Carester. InfraVia, a critical minerals fund seeded by the French state, will take an equal stake. The deal includes 15-year supply and offtake agreements, with Carester's plant forecast to produce 1,400 metric tons of rare earth oxides annually from recycled magnets and mining concentrates. CEO Barbara Humpton said the French government is interested in supporting the facility, as Europe races to reduce dependence on Chinese rare earth supplies.

The dollar index slipped for a fourth consecutive session on Thursday, falling to 98.83, as traders weighed the fragile ceasefire and softer-than-expected GDP data. The euro firmed to $1.1697, consolidating gains after Wednesday's rally. The yen gave back some ground with dollar-yen rising to 159.12, while commodity-linked currencies including the Australian and New Zealand dollars outperformed. The dollar has stabilised slightly in Asian trading on Friday ahead of the U.S. CPI release, which could prove pivotal — a hot print would reinforce the hawkish Fed narrative and potentially reverse recent dollar weakness.

U.S. CPI for March is due at 13:30 BST, with headline expected at 3.3% — the highest in nearly two years — and could materially shift rate expectations. University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations (preliminary April) follow at 15:00 BST. Germany's final March HICP is due at 07:00 BST. Weekend peace talks between the U.S. and Iran in Pakistan on Saturday will be critical for Monday's open across energy and metals markets.