Daily metals

Copper is trading at $13,170 as of Friday 07:00, a 0.3% discount to Thursday's official close of $13,206, with the broader complex taking a breather after a strong week. Nickel is the standout mover, up 1.9% at $18,365 versus Thursday's $18,027 close, extending its rally to near three-month highs. Zinc has firmed 0.4% to $3,431, lead is up 0.4% at $1,934, and tin has edged 0.1% higher to $49,962. Aluminium is the weakest alongside copper, both slipping 0.3% — aluminium to $3,634 against Thursday's $3,644 close. Despite Friday's modest pullback in copper and aluminium, the complex is heading for a strong fourth consecutive weekly gain. Macro & Geopolitics A 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon took effect on Thursday, and Trump said the next round of U.S.-Iran talks may happen this weekend — but the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, keeping Brent crude near $98. G7 finance ministers meeting in Washington agreed it was "urgent to limit the cost to the global economy" of the conflict and pledged readiness to act on inflation risks. Germany's government halved its 2026 growth forecast to 0.5% from 1.0%, with inflation now projected at 2.7%. U.S. industrial production unexpectedly fell 0.5% in March, weighed by motor vehicles and primary metals, though weekly jobless claims dropped to 207,000. The dollar index sits near six-week lows at 98.24, having declined for eight straight sessions through Wednesday before stabilising. Base Metals Aluminium hit a four-year high of $3,672 on Thursday as traders continued to price in Gulf supply damage — EGA's Al Taweelah smelter could take up to a year to fully restore, and the LME cash contract is trading at a premium to three-month, a sign of near-term tightness unique among the base metals. Copper is on track for a 2.9% weekly gain, supported by peace-deal optimism improving the demand outlook, though a firmer dollar is capping gains this morning. Nickel's sharp overnight move reflects tightening sulphur availability from the Middle East, which is raising costs for Indonesian HPAL producers. The U.S. Senate voted to overturn a Minnesota mining ban, boosting Antofagasta's Twin Metals copper-nickel-cobalt project. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is working on a critical minerals trade pact with a "select group" of partners, including a price floor to counter Chinese dumping. Precious Metals Gold is holding near $4,795, on track for a fourth straight weekly gain as ceasefire hopes ease inflation fears and revive rate-cut expectations — though traders still see only a 27% chance of a Fed cut this year. Indian banks have halted gold and silver import orders due to a delayed government authorisation, with roughly 5 tonnes of gold and 8 tonnes of silver stuck at customs. Silver's structural deficit is deepening, with 762 million troy ounces drawn from stocks since 2021 according to the Silver Institute. Platinum and palladium are both heading for a third consecutive weekly gain. Steel U.S. Steel announced plans to restart its Gary tin mill, estimating $15–20 million in restart-related costs. India and Russia held a roundtable on steel sector cooperation covering raw material sourcing, technology and equipment manufacturing. Codelco and Anglo American are pursuing an unprecedented twin-track environmental approval for their shared Andina-Los Bronces copper pit in Chile, planning to file applications in December with production of 120,000 tonnes per year targeted from 2030. Vale reported its best Q1 iron ore sales since 2018 but suspended pellet operations in Oman due to the Middle East conflict. Rare Earth Metals The Trump administration is preparing text for a plurilateral critical minerals trade agreement aimed at creating a market among allied nations with a price floor to prevent Chinese dumping. G7 finance leaders also discussed joint efforts to build alternative rare earth and critical mineral supply chains to reduce dependency on China, with concrete steps expected at the June leaders' summit in Evian. India and Russia held a separate dialogue on mining cooperation including critical minerals. Forex The euro is trading near $1.178, just below the seven-week high touched on Thursday, as the dollar's safe-haven premium continues to unwind. The dollar index is hovering at 98.24, near its lowest since March 2 — the day after the Iran war began — having given back most of its conflict-driven gains. The Australian dollar is near a four-year high at $0.7163, benefiting from its commodity-currency status. Commodity-linked currencies including the Norwegian krone are among the year's best performers, with analysts at Société Générale and Amundi flagging further upside. The yen is back near 159.4 per dollar after the Bank of Japan steered clear of signalling an imminent rate hike. Watch Today Euro zone trade balance data for February is due at 09:00 GMT — the first reading to capture the initial impact of the Iran war on European trade flows. Fed speakers Daly, Barkin and Waller are scheduled. All eyes are on whether U.S.-Iran talks materialise over the weekend; any progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz would be transformative for energy and metals markets heading into Monday.