Daily metals

Copper is trading at $13,597 this Monday morning, a modest 0.2% premium to Friday's three-month close of $13,573, consolidating near three-month highs. Nickel is the standout mover, up 1.4% at $19,150 versus Friday's $18,892 close, while tin has surged 1.1% to $54,440. Aluminium has firmed 0.6% to $3,525, with zinc and lead both adding 0.2–0.3%. The complex opens the week with a broadly constructive tone despite renewed geopolitical headwinds from the Middle East, as supply-side concerns and strong Chinese data underpin sentiment.

Trump's rejection of Iran's peace proposal on Sunday has sent oil prices sharply higher, with Brent jumping over 4% in Asian trade. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed entering the 11th week of the conflict, and JPMorgan warns that operational stress levels could emerge by June. The dollar strengthened as a liquidity haven, with the euro slipping 0.28% to $1.1754. China's April CPI beat expectations at 1.2% year-on-year, while factory-gate prices hit a 45-month high at 2.8%, though analysts attribute the latter largely to elevated energy and raw material costs rather than genuine demand recovery. Trump visits Beijing from Wednesday for talks with Xi Jinping covering trade, rare earths, and the Gulf — a meeting European markets will watch closely for any signals on tariff trajectories and critical minerals supply.

Copper's push to three-month highs is underpinned by a tightening supply picture. Freeport-McMoRan has delayed the full recovery of its Grasberg mine to early 2028, compounding an already squeezed concentrate market. Chinese refined copper imports surged 9% month-on-month in April to 452,000 tonnes, the highest since September, driven by grid investment up 37% year-on-year and booming EV sales. SHFE copper stocks fell 5.6% last week to 181,333 tonnes, their lowest since January. Asian copper scrap supply is described as "severely tight," with Bare Bright coefficients converging around 98.5% and No. 2 copper coefficients spiking abnormally to 95–96%. The Hormuz closure is also disrupting sulphur flows critical to nickel and lithium processing — about half of global seaborne sulphur transited the strait pre-war, and April volumes collapsed to just 30,000 tonnes. Aluminium supply is similarly affected, with shipments through the strait falling from 1.26 million tonnes monthly to roughly 20,000 tonnes in April. In the European scrap market, German copper scrap prices eased slightly last week after LME copper briefly dipped below $13,000, though the correction proved short-lived.

Gold fell 0.8% to $4,678.39 as the failed Iran peace talks pushed oil higher, stoking inflation fears that could keep interest rates elevated for longer. The dollar's strength added further pressure. China's Q1 gold production declined as safety inspections forced smelter maintenance shutdowns. Analysts see gold range-bound between $4,400 and $4,800 while the ceasefire-without-peace stalemate persists. Silver edged up 0.4% to $80.61, while platinum slipped 0.7% to $2,041.66 and palladium fell 0.6% to $1,482.46. April U.S. CPI data due later this week will be pivotal for rate expectations and precious metals direction.

China's steel exports fell 9% year-on-year in April to 9.5 million tonnes, tracking the lowest annual pace since 2023 — a development that should help rebalance domestic steel prices and improve mill margins that have been suppressed by overproduction. Iron ore futures gained for the sixth session on Monday, with the most-traded September contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange up 1.16% at 826 yuan per metric ton, supported by lower steel exports and declining iron ore inventories. In Europe, Thyssenkrupp faces union pushback over plans to restructure its Materials Services division into a KGaA legal form ahead of a potential spin-off or divestment, with IG Metall warning the structure would curtail labour representation at the 11.4 billion euro unit.

The U.S.-China rare earths deal remains in effect ahead of Trump's Beijing visit, with a senior U.S. official confirming conversations on a potential extension are ongoing. The summit on May 14–15 will be the first face-to-face meeting between Trump and Xi in over six months, with rare earths, critical minerals, and broader trade all on the agenda. For European manufacturers dependent on rare earth imports, any breakdown or extension of this arrangement carries direct supply chain implications.

The euro dipped 0.28% to $1.1754 as the dollar drew safe-haven demand following the collapse of U.S.-Iran peace talks. The yen weakened 0.3% to 157.10 per dollar despite Japan's hawkish BOJ stance and reported readiness for intervention, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent visiting Tokyo this week. Europe's status as a major oil importer leaves the euro vulnerable to further energy price spikes. Sterling faces additional pressure after survey data showed UK hiring momentum fading amid Iran-related cost pressures.

U.S. existing home sales data is due at 1400 GMT. British PM Starmer delivers a speech on rebuilding European relations — relevant for UK-EU trade sentiment. SoftBank and Fox Corp report earnings. The key event this week for metals markets is Trump's China visit beginning Wednesday, where rare earths, trade terms, and Gulf diplomacy will all be in play.