Daily metals

This Morning Copper is trading at $13,443 cash / $13,481 three-month as of Monday morning, down 0.4% from Friday's official cash close of $13,503. Zinc is the weakest performer, off 0.6% at $3,499 cash. Aluminium has slipped 0.4% to $3,620. On the upside, tin has edged 0.2% higher to $52,300 and nickel has added 0.2% to $18,334, while lead is essentially flat at $1,995. The complex opens the week under pressure from a surging dollar, rising oil prices and disappointing Chinese economic data released overnight. Macro & Geopolitics G7 finance ministers gather in Paris today for a two-day meeting aimed at tackling global economic tensions and aligning on critical raw material supplies, following the Trump-Xi summit which produced few concrete economic outcomes. The Middle East conflict continues to dominate: a drone strike caused a fire at a nuclear power plant in the UAE, while Saudi Arabia intercepted three drones, as Trump warned Iran must act "fast." Brent crude climbed above $111 a barrel, with the Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed to normal shipping. Capital Economics warned inventories could reach critical levels by end-June, setting the stage for Brent at $130–140 if the strait remains shut. Markets now price a 50% chance of a Fed rate hike by December, while 10-year Treasury yields hit 4.631%, a 15-month high. Base Metals Copper tumbled to a one-week low on Monday, as a stronger dollar and rising oil prices weighed on industrial metals, while weaker Chinese data pressured the complex. China's April factory output grew just 4.1% year-on-year versus 5.7% in March, and retail sales rose a paltry 0.2%, both missing expectations. Shanghai's most active tin contract fell more than 4%, reversing some of the metal's recent outperformance, though LME tin held up better. On the SHFE, aluminium lost 1.26%, zinc dropped 0.87%, lead declined 0.67%, nickel slipped 1.01%. Traders are cautiously assessing the fallout from last week's Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, where warm rhetoric yielded limited concrete trade outcomes. The oil-driven inflation shock is the dominant headwind for the complex, raising the spectre of demand destruction across manufacturing sectors. Precious Metals Gold fell to its lowest since March 30, pressured by rising oil-driven inflation fears and expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates. Spot gold was down around 1.1% at $4,489 before dip-buying helped it recover toward $4,540. J.P. Morgan lowered its 2026 average gold price forecast to $5,243 from $5,708, citing investor demand that has "dried to a trickle," though the bank still expects prices toward $6,000 by year-end. India restricted imports of silver in nearly all forms with immediate effect, targeting 99.9% purity bars and semi-manufactured forms that accounted for over 90% of the country's silver imports last fiscal year. The restriction is expected to reduce silver imports and tighten domestic supplies, potentially lifting premiums in the local market. Lower demand from India, which meets more than 80% of its consumption through imports, could weigh on global prices. Spot silver fell 2.2% to $74.30, platinum lost 0.6% to $1,961, and palladium dropped 1.2% to $1,396. Steel China's crude steel output in April fell 3.9% from March to 83.63 million metric tons, down 2.8% year-on-year — the lowest April reading since 2018. The Iran war has fuelled concerns about inflation and a potential global recession that could dent demand for metals, hitting Chinese steel exports. The persistent downturn in the property market remained a drag on steel consumption, with both investment and new construction starts extending declines. Goldman Sachs noted they "see delayed execution in 2026 in terms of both capacity and production discipline." Rare Earth Metals The White House said China will address U.S. concerns about shortages of specialty rare earths including yttrium, scandium, neodymium and indium, as outlined in a factsheet from last week's Trump-Xi summit. Beijing would also address U.S. concerns over China's export restrictions on rare earth processing equipment and technology. However, China's Ministry of Commerce did not mention rare earths in its own summary. While Trump described the visit as "very successful," no concrete rare earth agreement was announced and no details were given on whether export licensing delays have continued. Reducing reliance on China for critical minerals is a priority at today's G7 finance ministers' meeting in Paris. Forex The euro sat at $1.1616 after losing 1.4% last week, its lowest level since early April. The single currency is tracking toward a weekly loss of over 1% as mounting evidence of economic damage from the Iran war has led investors to expect faster-than-anticipated rate hikes and weaker growth. Sterling wallowed at $1.3311, having dived 2.3% last week as political instability added to pressure on the gilt market. The dollar held firm against the yen at 158.91, with only the threat of Japanese intervention preventing another assault on the 160.00 barrier. Risk aversion continues to benefit the greenback as the world's most liquid currency and a net energy exporter. Watch Today The G7 Finance Ministers' Meeting opens in Paris today (May 18–19), with the Strait of Hormuz, energy security and critical mineral supply chains all on the agenda — outcomes could shift sentiment across metals and forex. Fed April meeting minutes are due Wednesday and will be scrutinised for any shift toward a neutral or tightening stance. Nvidia reports earnings Wednesday, a potential catalyst for broader risk appetite given the chipmaker's outsized index weighting. China's April retail sales and industrial output data, released overnight, already disappointed and may weigh on European open.