Daily metals

Copper is trading at $13,765 as of Friday at 08:00, down 1.1% from Thursday's official close of $13,920, leading a broad retreat across the complex. Tin is the sharpest faller, off 1.8% at $54,377 versus Thursday's $55,356 close. Aluminium is 0.6% softer at $3,644, nickel has slipped 0.2% to $18,423, zinc is down 0.3% at $3,555, and lead is the most resilient, easing just 0.2% to $2,011. The pullback follows a risk-off session in Asia driven by the Broadcom-led tech selloff and fading optimism around a U.S.-Iran peace deal, with an overnight drone attack on Oman's main oil export terminal adding fresh geopolitical anxiety. Macro & Geopolitics Wall Street delivered a split verdict on Thursday: the Dow hit a record close, up 1.7%, while the Nasdaq slipped 0.1% after Broadcom's disappointing AI chip results dragged the Philadelphia semiconductor index down 2.2%. Brent crude fell nearly 3% to $95 after Israel and Lebanon announced a ceasefire, but Hezbollah promptly rejected the deal and Israel refused to withdraw troops, leaving the broader U.S.-Iran peace process in limbo. Overnight, Oman's Mina al Fahal terminal suspended oil loadings after an alleged drone attack near its mooring berths, underscoring the fragility of Gulf energy infrastructure. Kansas City Fed President Schmid flagged a choice between holding rates steady and hiking, while markets now price a 51% chance of a Fed rate hike by December. For Europe, the ECB meeting on June 11 looms large, with markets pricing a 97% probability of a 25bp hike to 2.25% after eurozone inflation hit 3.2% in May. Base Metals Copper is poised for a modest weekly gain despite Friday's dip, supported by tightening physical supply. LME copper inventories fell to 379,975 tons on Thursday — the lowest since April 2 — after 23,475 tons of cancellation warrants were posted, with the bulk from New Orleans as the COMEX arbitrage remains wide open. ANZ expects copper to lift towards $14,000/t by year-end, citing structurally driven demand from the energy transition and AI infrastructure. The U.S. Commerce Department's recommendation on copper tariffs is due by month-end, a potential catalyst for further COMEX-LME dislocation. Elsewhere, Indonesia issued a regulation centralising exports of strategic commodities including ferroalloys through a state-owned enterprise, a move that could tighten nickel-related product flows. Nickel touched its lowest since May 19 on Thursday, while tin's sharp retreat reflects profit-taking after its recent speculative rally. Precious Metals Gold is heading for a weekly loss of around 2%, trading near $4,443 as the stalled U.S.-Iran peace process keeps oil elevated and rate-hike expectations alive. The metal has shed roughly 20% from its January record of $5,595, and consultancy Metals Focus expects total gold demand to fall 2% in 2026 due to double-digit losses in jewellery and central bank purchases. India's gold ETFs recorded their first net monthly outflow in a year in May after New Delhi raised import duties to 15%. Silver, platinum and palladium are all tracking weekly losses. Perth Mint gold sales hit a one-year low in May at just 19,430 ounces, down 58% from April. Steel China's steel sector continues to weigh on sentiment, with about 59% of steelmakers operating at a profit versus a nine-month high of 64% in mid-May, as rising coal costs and weakening seasonal demand squeeze margins. Shanghai rebar shed ground on Friday. In Europe, the existing steel safeguard measure expires on June 30, with the replacement regulation set to halve tariff-free import volumes and double out-of-quota duties to 50%. Britain's trade minister played down concerns over the India FTA steel dispute, hinting at an autumn implementation — which would be the fastest for any UK trade deal. Italy approved €100 million in additional funding for Acciaierie d'Italia. Rare Earth Metals USA Rare Earth secured access to $1.6 billion in U.S. Commerce Department funding to advance its mine-to-magnets supply chain, while separately announcing a $1.2 billion magnet plant in South Carolina targeting 6,400 tonnes/year of NdFeB magnets. The company is also expanding in Europe, with plans to invest over €175 million in France over five years for a rare earth metal and alloy facility in Lacq. REalloys signed a letter of intent for priority access to up to 30% of Patriot Exploration's rare earth production, as the Pentagon's January 2027 ban on Chinese-origin rare earth materials drives urgency across Western supply chains. Forex The euro edged up to $1.1615 on Thursday, supported by the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire announcement and positioning ahead of next week's ECB meeting. Markets are pricing a near-certain 25bp rate hike on June 11 after eurozone inflation accelerated to 3.2% in May, with core inflation at 2.5% and services at 3.5% signalling broadening price pressures. The dollar index was flat at 99.46, while the yen hovered at 160 per dollar, keeping Japanese intervention risk elevated after Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said the BOJ would coordinate with the government. The Swiss franc gained 0.3% against the dollar. Bitcoin fell to a four-month low near $63,000, down roughly 15% on the week. Watch Today U.S. May nonfarm payrolls at 13:30 CET are the main event, with consensus at 85,000–105,000 jobs. An upside surprise could reinforce Fed rate-hike expectations and pressure gold while supporting the dollar. Revised Q1 eurozone GDP is due at 10:00 CET. Bank of England Governor Bailey and MPC member Dhingra are scheduled to speak. India's central bank rate decision is also expected today.