Daily Metals

This Morning Base metals are under pressure this morning, with every contract trading below Monday's official close as tin leads the declines, trading at $52,105 versus the official close of $53,847 — a drop of 3.2%. Aluminium is off 2.3% at $3,283 against $3,360.54, while zinc has shed 1.6% to $3,550 and nickel is down 0.7% at $17,430. Copper has slipped 0.7% to $13,480 from $13,580.37, while lead is the most resilient, easing just 0.2% to $1,928. Macro & Geopolitics The market mood has shifted decisively toward Fed rate-hike fears. Following last week's hawkish hold under new Chair Kevin Warsh, traders now price an 88-89% chance of a December hike, with futures implying a 54% probability of at least two 25bp moves before year-end. Both Deutsche Bank and BofA now expect a September hike. The US waived sanctions on Iran for 60 days from Monday after the first round of Switzerland talks laid what Vice President Vance called a good foundation for a final deal, easing supply fears and pulling Brent back near $78. In the UK, PM Starmer's resignation paves the way for an expected handover to Andy Burnham, with gilt markets the key watchpoint. Flash PMIs across the euro zone, Germany, France and the UK land today. Base Metals Copper fell on the LME as worries over Fed-driven growth headwinds overtook the brief lift from Iran peace optimism, with the three-month contract around $13,580 in Asian trade. Chinese refined copper output rose 2.2% year-on-year in May to 1.26 million tonnes, helped by strong smelter margins from elevated sulphuric acid by-product prices. Aluminium was the weakest of the majors alongside tin, pressured as traders weigh recovering Gulf supply against robust Chinese output — China's aluminium stranded-wire exports more than tripled to 50,224 tonnes in May. The LME cash premium that hit 19-year highs above $104 on June 1 has collapsed to around $10, signalling eased supply anxiety. Lower oil also trims energy costs for power-intensive aluminium and zinc, a longer-term bearish factor. ING still sees the aluminium market in deficit this year. Precious Metals Gold extended losses, sliding more than 1% to around $4,143 as a firm dollar near one-year highs offset the relief from cheaper oil. The metal is caught between competing forces: easing inflation fears from lower crude against the loss of appeal in a higher-rate environment. BofA conceded its $6,000 target now looks unlikely without rate hikes being priced out, though it maintains its longer-term bullish thesis on unorthodox US policy. Silver was hit hardest, dropping over 3% to near $63, while platinum lost around 1.9% to $1,646 and palladium fell about 1.8%. Thursday's US PCE inflation print is the next key catalyst. Steel UK steel trade rules originating before Brexit expire on June 30, and talks with the EU on market access could run to the wire, industry minister Chris McDonald warned, apologising to businesses for the uncertainty. London plans to cut the tariff-free import quota and double tariffs on volumes above it, mirroring the EU's own renewal of safeguards as both sides guard against dumping of subsidised steel, notably from China. McDonald ruled out moving the July 1 deadline, warning inaction would turn the UK into a global dumping ground. Mutually beneficial exemptions between the two remain under negotiation. Rare Earth Metals Western supply diversification gathered pace. Australia's Iluka Resources confirmed access to a A$1.65 billion ($1.15 billion) non-recourse government loan to build the Eneabba refinery in Western Australia — set to be the country's first fully integrated rare earths plant, currently over 50% complete. Iluka also signed a four-year magnet rare earth oxide offtake with an unnamed global automaker, worth at least $155 million and covering around 10% of planned output. Separately, the US-backed Orion Critical Mineral Consortium said it is in advanced talks for three Asian partnerships, eyeing a $20 billion pipeline and an estimated $2.4 trillion of critical-minerals investment needed by 2050 as an alternative to Chinese funding. Forex The euro remains under pressure, easing to around $1.143 after touching a three-month low of $1.1418 on Friday, weighed by the diverging Fed-ECB rate path and a dollar near one-year highs. The dollar index holds just above 101, with speculators now running their largest bullish dollar position in 16 months. Sterling steadied near $1.325 after Starmer's resignation, with markets watching gilts and the choice of finance minister rather than the leadership contest itself. The yen languishes near a 40-year low around 161.60 per dollar, with Japan's finance minister and the US Treasury secretary having held an online meeting amid intervention speculation. Watch Today Flash June PMIs for France, Germany, the euro zone and the UK are due through the morning, offering a fresh read on activity as the ECB weighs its next move. ECB Vice-President Boris Vujcic and the Bank of England's Alan Taylor are scheduled to speak. The US Commerce Department's Section 232 copper tariff review deadline of June 30 is now just a week away. Metal Radar - 23.06.26