Daily metals

Base metals opened the week mostly higher, with three of the six contracts trading above Friday’s official close. Copper led with a 1.5% rise to $14,368.50 a tonne, while zinc advanced 0.7% to $3,783 and tin gained 0.2% to $56,050. Lead fell 0.4% to $1,845, nickel declined 0.2% to $16,590 and aluminium eased 0.1% to $3,247.50. Macro & Geopolitics The dollar weakened after July brought the first fall in U.S. retail sales for nine months, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged in September; markets put the probability of an increase near 30%. European equity futures edged higher, while traders continued to price tighter policy in Europe and Japan. Energy remains the main inflation risk: Brent held around $88.50 a barrel after a 6% weekly rise as Iran negotiations remained stalled and tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted. Renewed attacks involving Ukraine, Russia and neighbouring Romania added another layer of geopolitical uncertainty for European industry. Base Metals Copper’s gain reflected acute nearby availability rather than stronger physical demand. LME warehouse inventories have almost halved in three months as metal moved towards the United States, while a maintenance disruption at Indonesia’s Smelting Gresik operation added to supply concerns. The cash-to-three-month backwardation widened to roughly $473 a tonne, its largest since 2021, as short-position holders sought deliverable material before Wednesday’s settlement. The rally may face resistance from China, where the Yangshan import premium fell to a one-month low of $90 amid poor import economics and cautious buying. Zinc and tin followed copper higher, while aluminium, nickel and lead lagged. Precious Metals Gold climbed 0.4% towards $4,391 an ounce as a softer dollar and reduced expectations of a September Fed increase improved demand for non-yielding assets. Silver rose 1.4% to $65.53, palladium gained 1.6% to $1,333 and platinum added 0.3% to $1,752. Gold could require further dollar weakness or a clearer pullback in energy prices to sustain a move above $4,500. Steel BlueScope more than doubled annual underlying profit to A$851.2 million, benefiting from stronger U.S. steel spreads and improved Southeast Asian performance, although Chinese excess capacity continued to pressure regional margins. The company’s first-half 2027 earnings guidance also exceeded expectations. In Europe’s wider supply region, Russian strikes damaged power-generation and blast-furnace facilities at ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih, partially halting production at Ukraine’s largest steel plant. Rare Earth Metals American Rare Earths signed a memorandum of understanding with Novex to advance oxide-to-metal production in the United States. The Reuters brief did not disclose commercial volumes, a development timetable or the financial terms of the agreement. Forex The euro rose to about $1.158, close to a two-month high, as weaker U.S. consumption data pushed the dollar lower. The yen strengthened modestly to around 159.15 per dollar as expectations for faster Bank of Japan tightening increased. Japanese 10-year government bond yields reached nearly 2.93%, an almost 30-year high, while U.S. Treasury yields eased. Watch Today China’s rescheduled July economic activity and housing data are the principal metals catalyst during the European morning. Canadian inflation data later in the day could influence North American rate expectations and the dollar, while Europe’s scheduled data calendar is limited.